Aaron Judge’s Return Can’t Come Soon Enough for the Yankees
New York is hardly the same team without its slugger, who could be back in the lineup as early as tonight in Baltimore.
(co-byline: Javon Edmonds / The Messenger)
Aaron Judge could return to the Yankees’ lineup as early as tonight in Baltimore, and it couldn’t come soon enough for a fourth-place Yankees team that begins a three-game set with the first-place Orioles (and then returns home to face second-place Rays in the Bronx).
Having played without Judge since June 3, when he injured his right big toe in a collision with the right-field wall at Dodger Stadium, the Yankees find themselves buried in the AL East standings and on the outside looking in at the wild-card postseason picture (2.5 games from the third and final spot).
How important is Judge to the Yankees?
Since 2020, New York is 228-154 (a .597 winning percentage) with Judge in the lineup and just 50-54 (.481) without him. That differential is even more stark in 2023 alone: the Yankees are 30-19 (.612) with Judge and 24-29 (.453) without. When his bat isn’t in the lineup, practically all of the team’s offensive metrics fall off a cliff, as shown in the chart below.
Analysts have spent years trying to quantify the individual impact of players in various sports, and baseball is one of the least messy when conducting that exercise — in theory, at least.
Using metrics like Weighted Runs Created and Wins Above Replacement, we can estimate how many extra runs a hitter’s individual events are worth, and we can predict how many more (or fewer) runs his team will score when he’s either in or out of the lineup. In Judge’s case, however, predictions based on individual stats have greatly underestimated his effect on the Yankees’ lineup.
Let’s dig into those numbers: Judge’s estimated offensive value relative to an average player in 2023 is +0.46 extra runs per game (based on his batting, baserunning and double-play avoidance). According to the same methodology, his effect relative to a replacement-level right fielder is +0.58 runs per game. Both figures place him among the most impactful hitters in the game today . . . but wait . . . they also fall dramatically short of Judge’s actual observed effect on the Yankees’ offense.
With Judge, the Yankees are scoring 4.98 runs per game this season, which would rank seventh among all teams this season. Without him, the Yankees drop to 3.81, which would rank third-to-last this season. (Overall, the Yankees are scoring 4.37 runs per game, which ranks 21st.)
Clearly, Judge boosts the Yankees in a way that can’t be fully explained by just the output of his individual numbers.
Even with Judge back in the lineup, the Yankees — who haven’t won a World Series since 2009 and currently have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs — still have incentives to be buyers before Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline. Their needs are plenty, from the starting rotation (22nd in WAR) to left field (28th, unsurprisingly) and along the infield (third base, in particular, ranks just 27th in WAR). Even an extra bat off the bench would help; New York ranks 23rd in WAR from its pinch-hitters and pinch-runners.
Judge’s return can’t fix all of the Yankees’ problems. Given New York’s roster construction, there is only so much sprucing up that general manager Brian Cashman can do before the deadline to help a flawed team. But Judge’s return will go a long way toward giving the Yankees a chance to salvage their season — something that would have had zero chance of happening without him in the lineup.
Filed under: Baseball