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Mark Crowder's avatar

This Elo rating gets funnier and funnier

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Mark Crowder's avatar

Whatโ€™s the point of your predictive models if they do such a poor job of predicting anything? We already have an overwhelming amount of information. Youโ€™d think after last year youโ€™d tweak your process a bit. This ranking already looks awful.

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Neil Paine's avatar

Preseason Elo is based on last year's final ratings, regressed to the mean. It doesn't know about player movement/etc. Once games are played, it will change.

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