I'll probably add those once we have some games in the data. I don't think they're very good for predicting the entire season in the NBA because the regular season isn't taken as seriously as in the other sports, and good teams can sandbag late in the schedule, which ruins playoff predictions off of Elo. But I think they still have some value as a storytelling stat, so I'll probably update them anyway.
That's a good call! I'll have to mess around with the calculation some just because it's not denominated in Elo anymore (but rather based on the power ratings, which can be negative -- can't use the Harmonic Mean on those without an adjustment)
Neil, I noticed that your summary of each day's matchups is described as having predicted point spread and win probability, but I only see the win probability there in the table. Are you still planning to add the predicted point spread to the table? Thank you!
No more elo ratings?
I'll probably add those once we have some games in the data. I don't think they're very good for predicting the entire season in the NBA because the regular season isn't taken as seriously as in the other sports, and good teams can sandbag late in the schedule, which ruins playoff predictions off of Elo. But I think they still have some value as a storytelling stat, so I'll probably update them anyway.
In the daily games, could you add the “game quality” (harmonic mean of Elos) metric you had on 538?
That's a good call! I'll have to mess around with the calculation some just because it's not denominated in Elo anymore (but rather based on the power ratings, which can be negative -- can't use the Harmonic Mean on those without an adjustment)
Neil, I noticed that your summary of each day's matchups is described as having predicted point spread and win probability, but I only see the win probability there in the table. Are you still planning to add the predicted point spread to the table? Thank you!
Oh whoops! Yes, let me see about adding that.
Thank you, that's great
All right, that's in there now.
when are raptor rankings dropping?
I should be updating those in the next few weeks, once there are some regular-season games in the books for each team.