2023 World Series Preview: Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
We analyze the key matchups and trends that will determine who wins the Fall Classic.
As it seems like every sportswriter in America is contractually obliged to write this week, no, the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t the teams we expected to see in the World Series.
According to the preseason playoff odds — and assuming statistical independence — there was a 0.054% (1-in-1,859) chance that both the Rangers (4.1%) and D-backs (1.3%) would play each other in the World Series. This matchup also has the most combined losses over the previous two seasons (394) of any World Series pairing in history, by far — No. 2 was the worst-to-first Minnesota Twins versus Atlanta Braves, at 364, in 1991.
But now that the Rangers and Diamondbacks are here, let’s dig into the key factors to watch in this unexpected Fall Classic — the matchups within the games that will determine who emerges as this year’s champion.
Adolis García versus everybody
For good or bad, few players play with as much emotion on their sleeve as Texas outfielder Adolis García. We saw the full gamut of that in Game 5 of the ALCS, when García’s go-ahead HR — and Gronk-style celebratory bat spike — prompted a plunking and multiple ejections later in the game. But there’s no question García is one of the primary catalysts behind the Rangers’ pennant run. During the regular season, he was third on the team in OPS; in the playoffs, his 1.102 OPS ranks second only to Corey Seager’s 1.127. And of course, García is coming off the most productive single-series performance in MLB history by RBIs, driving in 15 total runs against the Houston Astros — including 12 in the final three games of the ALCS alone.
So slowing down García will be one of the primary tasks ahead of the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff. That might be a tall order, though. In the regular season, the only type of pitch that García struggled against was the split-fingered fastball — and Arizona was among the worst teams at deploying that pitch. Combine that with García’s profile as a strikeout-heavy slugger, juxtaposed against the D-backs’ tendency to give up fly balls with a below-average K rate, and this is another matchup García might see success in. (Even if he did hit .118 in four games against Arizona during the regular season.)
Arizona’s running game against Jonah Heim
If the D-backs seemed to turn around their NLCS fortunes with a more aggressive approach on the basepaths, that was no coincidence. Arizona was the best baserunning team in MLB during the regular season (according to an average of the value metrics found at Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), the best at stolen bases specifically, and it was among the fastest teams in terms of raw sprint speed as well. This team can flat-out fly, which made this the perfect roster to take advantage of MLB’s new, more runner-friendly rules in 2023.
While the importance of steals can (rightly) be overshadowed by other offensive factors such as on-base percentage and slugging — where the D-backs were nothing special during the regular season — Arizona’s ability to create havoc on the bases does seem to track with its ability to win. In games where Arizona stole no bases, their record was just 37-38 (.493); that figure rose to 47-40 (.540) in games with at least one steal, and 25-13 (.658) in games with two or more steals. Outfielder Corbin Carroll was the most efficient base-stealer in the sport as a rookie, and the team is 11-2 in games when he has multiple steals (including Game 7 of the NLCS).
That will put a lot of pressure on Texas catcher Jonah Heim to control the Diamondbacks’ runners in the World Series. Heim’s average pop time to second base (1.97 seconds) ranked in the middle of the pack this season, but he still managed to gun down 24 would-be stealers — fifth-most in MLB — and ranked as one of the 10 most valuable catchers against the running game. He’ll need every bit of that success against Arizona to take away one of its greatest strengths in this series.
Phenom versus phenom
Carroll was more than just a prolific base-thief as a rookie. He also hit .281 with an .862 OPS — 34% better than league average, the best among qualified first-year players this season. He also became the first rookie ever to post a 25 HR/50 SB season, ranking as the league’s best baserunner by far (his +15.3 run value was nearly double that of No. 2 Nico Hoerner, at +8.4) and establishing himself as the NL’s runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year. Based on his age-22 season, Carroll is in a three-way tie with Evan Longoria in 2008 and Cal Ripken Jr. in 1983 as the youngest players to lead a World Series team in regular-season Wins Above Replacement in the past 42 years.
But when it comes to precocious young players on the World Series stage, Carroll has a spotlight to share with 21-year-old Evan Carter of the Rangers. Carter wasn’t even on the major-league roster at the beginning of September, but he has turned into an integral part of Texas’ lineup throughout the postseason. Among Ranger batters in the playoffs, his .987 OPS ranks behind only Seager and García, and his two-RBI double in the fourth inning of Game 7 against Houston broke open the game that won Texas the pennant. Carter’s defense in left field has also stood out after making a variety of impressive leaping and diving catches throughout the postseason. In this rare battle of rising stars, whoever gets the better of the comparison is poised to lead their team to victory.
Which struggling ace rebounds?
Although Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks and Max Scherzer of the Rangers are at very different stages of their careers — Gallen, age 28, is squarely in the middle of his prime, coming off one of his best seasons; the 39-year-old Scherzer, while still usually effective when healthy, is nearing the end — their respective performances could make a huge difference in this series.
Gallen will be Arizona’s Game 1 starter against Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi. And with apologies to rotation-mate Merrill Kelly, he was clearly the D-backs’ best pitcher by WAR during the regular season. But in the postseason, Gallen is only 2-2 with a 5.24 ERA, a line that includes an 0-2 record and 7.36 ERA during the NLCS in particular. Arizona was able to survive Gallen’s poor outings to upset the Phillies anyway, thanks in part to the tremendous pitching of rookie Brandon Pfaadt (1.36 ERA), but it’s doubtful the Diamondbacks can continue to skate by against Texas without a better performance from their staff ace.
As for Scherzer, he pitched Game 3 of the ALCS in his first action since Sept. 12, and it showed — he was roughed up for five runs in four innings and took the loss. Returning to the mound for Game 7, he wasn’t much better, issuing a pair of walks and allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings, though 11 runs of support and the excellence of Jordan Montgomery out of the bullpen meant it didn’t matter. It’s unclear how much manager Bruce Bochy will continue to lean on Scherzer, who is normally a money pitcher in big games — he ranks sixth on the all-time list for playoff strikeouts — but he hasn’t figured it out yet this postseason, and he may be running out of time to do so.
Battle of the defenses
Forget about that stat on combined losses over the previous two seasons. Let’s focus on the positives of this matchup: Namely, this might be the best defensive World Series matchup in nearly 50 years.
During the regular season, Texas was baseball’s third-best defensive team in terms of runs above average (again blending the value metrics from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference), while Arizona ranked right behind at No. 4. Amazingly, the last time two teams that both ranked among the top four in that metric met in the Fall Classic was in 1975, when the No. 3 ranked Boston Red Sox defense faced the No. 4 Cincinnati Reds.
Neither the Rangers nor D-backs are exactly the second coming of the Big Red Machine, or maybe even the Gold Dust Twins-era Sox for that matter. But strictly in terms of defense, both teams’ glovework has been a major key to making it this far in the playoffs. According to Statcast data, Texas is suppressing opposing batting averages on balls in play by 41 points compared with what we’d expect from the contact its pitchers allow, the most of any team in the postseason. Arizona isn’t quite at that level, but it ranks second with a 26-point gap between expected and actual BABIP allowed.
The bullpens versus themselves
One of the weirdest aspects of these playoffs — or any baseball postseason, to be honest — has been the transformation of a pair of mediocre relief corps into mostly passable groups that were sometimes capable of completely shutting down formidable lineups.
During the regular season, neither Arizona (No. 18 in ERA) nor Texas (No. 24) boasted even an average bullpen, with the Rangers actually recording more blown saves (33) than successful ones (30). Texas’s closer early in the season, Will Smith, was demoted from the role in August, and his replacements (Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc) had their struggles in the job at different times. Meanwhile, Arizona didn’t acquire their own regular closer, Paul Sewald, until a trade with the Seattle Mariners on July 31.
There was no indication that these relievers would be capable of holding opponents to just one combined run in 12 postseason innings with the score close (within a run) in the seventh inning or later — but that’s exactly what happened. Now, this World Series might hinge on which bullpen continues to outpitch its regular-season track record by the widest margin.
D-backs against the odds
While both Arizona and Texas came from humble places within the past few seasons, the Rangers were actually a legitimately dominant team for most of the 2023 regular season. Texas finished the year at No. 4 in run differential (+165), No. 4 in BaseRuns-predicted winning percentage, and No. 4 in total team WAR. I called the Rangers’ season a bold experiment in accelerating a team’s window to contend for a championship through spending power, but it clearly worked — and it helped them form one of the deepest and most talent-laden rosters in MLB.
It’s harder to explain why the Diamondbacks are four wins away from a championship. During the regular season, Arizona was 16th in run differential (yes, they were negative, at -15), 14th in BaseRuns winning percentage and 14th in WAR. For all of the star-level performances from the likes of Carroll, Gallen and NLCS MVP Ketel Marte, this is a team that ended up with a worse run differential than the New York Mets (-12).
On paper, this might look like a mismatch — perhaps not quite as lopsided as the NLCS looked against the Phillies, but still a World Series with Texas clearly favored. So in many ways, the most important battle of the Fall Classic will simply be Arizona’s ongoing fight against the haters, doubters and number-crunchers who say they shouldn’t be here. If the D-backs’ magical run finally loses steam, that narrative will be validated. But given how many upsets Arizona has pulled over teams who had more wins before October, would we really be surprised to see them beat the odds one more time?
Game 1 starts Friday at 8:03 p.m. ET.
Filed under: Baseball