The following table is a list of MLB teams with their Elo ratings and a composite average of their predicted wins and playoff odds via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Find the full list of Elo games here. Also, check out the NFL version here and the NHL version
GoodDay Neil.....So So Heartbroken Over The Demise Of The 538 MLB Prediction Model...Just About EVERYDAY Finding MySelf Outwardly Venting My Disappointment About Not Having It.....Sorry Just Had To Vent My Frustration SomeHow SomeWay 😞
Excellent, thanks for that service! Please leave the end-of-regular season ELO ratings up for a bit when they come so I can add them to the 538 all-time database--they provide the seedings for my Stratomatic tournament!!
Will There Ever Be Another MLB Prediction Like The FiveThirtyEight Updated After Every Game? Starting pitcher....Team rating...Travel Rest home field adj.....Team PreGame rating....Chance Of Winning Model?
Possibly! Just something that was tough to pull back together from semi-scratch on the fly when everything at 538 fell apart in the middle of the 2023 season. Doing a daily update of the non-pitcher adjusted version was a lot more feasible under those conditions.
All three of the teams that I like are in the bottom 5. Not my favorite season.
And completely off topic here, the NFL season starts today and I'm really going to miss the 538 contest for picking the winners of each game. That was a lot of fun.
Me too. :( I do hope to revive the NFL rankings in some fashion, whether updating them here like this or a new feature at The Messenger. But the pick-em game itself would be separate from that.
hey is there an updated version yet?
Yes, it’s right here: https://open.substack.com/pub/neilpaine/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff?r=gwh9&utm_medium=ios
GOODDAY Neil.....IS There Another MLB Prediction Like The FiveThirtyEight Updated After Every Game Here On This Site?
I’m going to keep this updated: https://open.substack.com/pub/neilpaine/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff?r=gwh9&utm_medium=ios
Hey will this update for 2024?
The plan is to make a 2024 page sometime before the games next week.
Awesome cant wait!
GoodDay Neil.....So So Heartbroken Over The Demise Of The 538 MLB Prediction Model...Just About EVERYDAY Finding MySelf Outwardly Venting My Disappointment About Not Having It.....Sorry Just Had To Vent My Frustration SomeHow SomeWay 😞
Hi Neil, are you calculating the ELO ratings yourself or pulling them from another source?
Calculating them myself. (I should put the full game list on GitHub...)
Excellent, thanks for that service! Please leave the end-of-regular season ELO ratings up for a bit when they come so I can add them to the 538 all-time database--they provide the seedings for my Stratomatic tournament!!
Here's the game-by-game data: https://github.com/Neil-Paine-1/MLB-WAR-data-historical/blob/master/mlb-elo-latest.csv
Will There Ever Be Another MLB Prediction Like The FiveThirtyEight Updated After Every Game? Starting pitcher....Team rating...Travel Rest home field adj.....Team PreGame rating....Chance Of Winning Model?
Possibly! Just something that was tough to pull back together from semi-scratch on the fly when everything at 538 fell apart in the middle of the 2023 season. Doing a daily update of the non-pitcher adjusted version was a lot more feasible under those conditions.
I second this notion. The MLB and NBA Prediction pages were part of my daily routine during their respective seasons.
All three of the teams that I like are in the bottom 5. Not my favorite season.
And completely off topic here, the NFL season starts today and I'm really going to miss the 538 contest for picking the winners of each game. That was a lot of fun.
Me too. :( I do hope to revive the NFL rankings in some fashion, whether updating them here like this or a new feature at The Messenger. But the pick-em game itself would be separate from that.