A Visual Guide to the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline
A Visual Guide to the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline
Charting the supply and demand of the trade market ahead of Friday's deadline.
With the NHL trade deadline rapidly approaching on Friday at 3 p.m. ET, it’s time to survey the landscape of buyers and sellers.
The goal of this chart-heavy post is to use my playoff odds meta-model to identify contending teams that should be looking to add talent — based on their biggest weaknesses by Goals Above Replacement — and to look at the best pending free agents on selling teams who might be available to fill those needs, broken out by position. (Some notable players who aren’t hitting the market this summer might also be available, so I’ll mention them as well.)
Hopefully all of this will serve as a primer for the deals that could go down this week, as well as the way those moves will impact the Stanley Cup race going forward.
(Note: All playoff odds and Goals Above Replacement stats are as of Sunday, March 3.)
Forwards
Among teams with at least a 50-50 shot at the playoffs, the Predators and Flyers are in most need of forward help: Philly needs scoring from a unit where Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee and Owen Tippett have been pretty much the only significant offensive contributors, while Nashville needs all-around reinforcements to help Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. The Preds have a little cap space to work with, and better prospects to potentially deal; the Flyers will have to get creative to upgrade.
Among teams that are more playoff locks, the Golden Knights are in kind of the same spot as last year’s regular season — with less high-end star power than we’d expect from a championship roster — and the Jets are in desperate need of offense beyond Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor (particularly with Gabriel Vilardi injured).
Among the forwards who might be available, the biggest name according to GAR is Pittsburgh C Jake Guentzel, who’s on adjusted pace for 31 goals and 72 points and should return from injury soon. Other notables from teams with sub-50% playoff odds? C Tyler Toffoli of the Devils, Sabres C Casey Mittelstadt, Ottawa RW Vladimir Tarasenko, Capitals RW Anthony Mantha, Seattle RW Jordan Eberle and Ducks C Adam Henrique. Mouse over the scatter plot below for more forwards in the green zone (likely sellers by playoff %) who’ve been productive on expiring contracts this season:
Other notables: Blues LW Pavel Buchnevich (12.8 adjusted GAR, 2 yrs left on deal); Ducks LW Frank Vatrano (10.3 aGAR, 2 yrs left)
Defensemen
It feels weird to say this about a team that went to the Finals in 2022 with the league’s sixth-best D corps — a group led by future HOFer Victor Hedman — but the Lightning need blueline help. (Beyond Hedman’s still-strong 19.6 aGAR, their next-best D is Nicklaus Perbix at a mere 6.1.) The Golden Knights also rank only 19th in defence GAR, while the Maple Leafs need to beef up their back line… as is just about always the case.
It’s surprising to see the Bruins among the deficient D corps as well, after they ranked 2nd in GAR from the blueline last season. But Boston has gotten practically no offense from their defensemen this year, aside from Charlie McAvoy. And one last contender who needs the opposite — maybe a defender who is good in his own zone — are the Red Wings, whose D-men rank 3rd in offensive GAR but 23rd on defense.
The blueline prize of this trade deadline by far is Calgary’s Noah Hanifin, a very good all-around D who could be the most important chess piece moving around the trade board this week. After Hanifin, the pickings are much more slim in terms of productive D-men on likely sellers. Some rankings list names like Philadelphia’s Sean Walker and Nick Seeler and Nashville’s Alex Carrier, but both teams’ playoff odds were above 60% on Sunday, so they might stay put. Ex-Flame Chris Tanev (5.3 aGAR) was already moved to Dallas last week, and while Buffalo’s Henri Jokiharju and Arizona’s Sean Durzi and J.J. Moser are restricted free agents this summer, they’ll probably be re-signed to long-term deals.
That likely leaves “meh” guys like the Blues’ Marco Scandella (1.1 aGAR), Washington’s Joel Edmundson (1.1 aGAR) the Sabres’ Erik Johnson (0.2 aGAR) and the Coyotes’ Matt Dumba (-0.3 aGAR) as the best options for teams who whiff on Hanifin — another reason why he is such an important domino to potentially fall this deadline.
Other notables: Senators D Jakob Chychrun (7.0 aGAR, 2 yrs left on deal)
Goalies
Goalies are incredibly random and it can be tough to shop for an impact netminder at the deadline, which is why this approach — matching teams in need with pending free agents — is weakest when looking to the net.
For one thing, the contenders who’ve been shakiest between the pipes are an eclectic bunch. The Lightning are the worst in this group, which feels impossible with Andrei Vasilevskiy, but he has been highly mediocre (58th of 68 qualifiers in Goals Saved Above Average) and backup Jonas Johansson has been worse. Tampa Bay has zero intention of rolling with anybody but Vasi in the playoffs, but would they swing a deal to improve their insurance policy if he gets hurt? The same question applies to the Avalanche, who’ve gotten subpar netminding from Alexandar Georgiev and have a suspect backup situation.
Others on this list are going in different directions. The Flyers lost Carter Hart indefinitely because of his alleged role in the Hockey Canada sexual assault scandal, and replacement Samuel Ersson has largely struggled. They might have a better case to shop for upgrades than the Hurricanes, who’ve gotten bad goaltending all season but who have better potential with Pyotr Kochetkov improving in February. And then there are the big Canadian hopes of the Leafs and Oilers, who almost always go into the playoffs with question marks in net.
In terms of who’s available, there’s a lot of buzz around Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom (16.4 aGAR), who isn’t on the chart below because he’s under contract for 2 more seasons after 2023-24. But if he is able to be pried loose, he could be a true game-changer for the playoffs. If not, look for lesser veterans such as Minnesota’s Marc-Andre Fleury and San Jose’s Kaapo Kähkönen to be on the market. And a couple of others in our chart are intriguing: Pittsburgh’s Alex Nedeljkovic — as the Pens are rumored to be shopping goalies around — and Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Both are on pace for at least 10.0 aGAR this season, and while it might be buying high to go fetch Luukkonen after his save percentage rose from .891 to .914 year-over-year, the gamble might be worth it to one of the many contenders from our list above who’ve been battling poor goaltending all season.
Other notables: Flames G Jacob Markstrom (16.4 aGAR, 3 yrs left on deal); Canadiens G Jake Allen (0.2 aGAR, 2 yrs left)
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