World Baseball Classic Elo Ratings Update

Where the teams rank through games of March 11.

Building on the Elo ratings we calculated for World Baseball Classic teams at FiveThirtyEight, I figured I would periodically post updated rankings here during the tournament. Here are the numbers through games of Saturday, March 11:

It’s no surprise to see Japan, the greatest team in WBC history, get off to another strong start at 3-0 with a +24 run differential. The Samurai Warriors have gained the most Elo of any team in the tournament so far, bringing their rating (1579) to the highest mark ever achieved during the first round of the WBC.

After Japan, the second-biggest Elo risers of the WBC so far hail from the same pool: Australia is 2-0 with wins over China and South Korea. (We’ll see exactly how good the Aussies truly are when they face Japan tomorrow morning.) Meanwhile, Venezuela saw a big boost from their 5-1 win Saturday against the mighty Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico picked up pretty much where it left off last tournament with a lopsided victory over Nicaragua.

As for the biggest fallers, China has bled a WBC-high 21 points of Elo so far, losing by an average of 6.7 runs per game. (It’s time to admit they were perhaps rated too highly in Elo, having been initially set at 1500 in 2006 by virtue of being part of the very first WBC field. Ever since, they’ve lost 13 of 15 games, often in comically lopsided fashion.) Behind them, South Korea’s 0-2 start is disappointing — quite possibly costing them a chance to move on in the tournament — and although it’s still early, the Dominican Republic got dinged hard for losing its opener versus Venezuela.

We’ll have to see how the ranking evolves over the course of the WBC, but so far it’s been a bit of a mixed bag for the top-rated squads heading into the tournament.