Which All-Stars Tend to Stay All-Stars?

Each summer, MLB’s best and brightest gather for a midseason showcase. But does it really highlight the stars of tomorrow — or just capture a moment that fades with the summer wind?

Shohei Ohtani has one of the highest probabilities of being an All-Star next year. Matthew Boyd? Not as high. (Kyodo News, Chicago)

With the release of MLB’s All-Star rosters on Sunday, we once again toast the finest players the game has to offer — or at least, the players who’ve been the best early on this season. (A year ago, I found that the ASG has increasingly become about first-half performance, as measured by Wins Above Replacement, instead of a player’s long-term previous track record.)

But another question I’ve pondered about the All-Star Game is whether it is a predictor of future success. How often do the current-year’s All-Stars return to the midseason classic — either the following season, or at all over the rest of their careers? Are there patterns to who stays an All-Star, versus who fades away? And who among this year’s crop will stand the test of time?

Today, we’ll explore what determines if an All-Star is just passing through — and what separates them from the ones who are here to stay.