What The Pacers Have Done To OKC
The Thunder weren't themselves in Game 3, and Indiana is now 2 wins from an unlikely NBA title.
We knew going into Wednesday night’s NBA Finals Game 3 that control of the series was likely riding on the outcome. My past research shows that Game 3 of a best-of-seven series tied 1-1 is the fifth-highest leverage state that the series could possibly rest in, swinging the odds by +/-18 percentage points even after controlling for differences in the quality of the teams involved. So when the Indiana Pacers pulled out an impressive, resilient 116-107 win to grab a 2-1 lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder, it was obviously a huge potential turning point in the series, and the 2024-25 season overall.
However, any shift in odds based on the new situation — my NBA forecast model now gives OKC a 62 percent chance to win it all (down from 80 percent before Game 3), while Polymarket sets the Thunder at 67 percent — might actually be underselling how seismic Wednesday’s result was. Because the Thunder didn’t just lose the game — they lost in a way that was deeply out of character relative to the rest of their season.
