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Hello and welcome to another Wednesday in sports, as we are now midway through the last week of the World Cup. Savor it while it lasts! Yesterday, we were treated to a shocking upset (well, as shocking as it gets when both teams are among the best in international soccer history) as Spain shut down mighty France 2-0 to claim a spot in Sunday’s Final. Today, we’ll see who joins them in the highly anticipated England-Argentina semifinal — more on that below. We’re also recovering from an MLB All-Star Game that was… well, a masterclass if you like watching AL pitchers mow down NL batters. Now we’re on to a day that’s often notably light on the sports calendar… but is that really true this year? Just look at what else we have in store on the schedule:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup semifinal: England (54%) vs. Argentina (46%)* - 3 p.m. (FOX / Telemundo) 🚨
⚽ World Cup odds: Spain 60% to win the tournament
⚽ NWSL: Boston Legacy FC (22%) at Orlando Pride (57%) - 7 p.m. (NWSL+)
⚽ NWSL: Washington Spirit (26%) at Gotham FC (39%) - 8 p.m. (NWSL+)
MLB:
⚾ No games. (All-Star break)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 32% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Storm (43%) at Sky (57%) - 12 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Sparks (15%) at Lynx (85%) - 1 p.m. (Victory+ / Spectrum SportsNet)
🏀 Valkyries (44%) at Fever (56%) - 8 p.m. (USA Network)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 37% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 39%
🏀 Summer League: Magic (61%) at 76ers (39%) - 4 p.m. (ESPNU)
🏀 Summer League: Celtics (55%) at Kings (45%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏀 Summer League: Wizards (51%) at Clippers (49%) - 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France, Stage 11 (Vichy to Nevers) - Tadej Pogacar 96% to win
Other:
🏆 ESPY Awards, 8 p.m. - Marcello Hernández hosting at Lincoln Center (ABC)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Hand of God, meet Foot of… Jude?
As we wrote yesterday, Spain versus France was arguably the best on-paper matchup in World Cup semifinal history — literally the best if we average the two teams’ pre-game Elo ratings — but it delivered a decisive result in Spain’s favor, rather than a back-and-forth nail-biter that we might have expected with La Roja facing what was supposed to be a generational France side. For all their talent, Les Bleus were largely outclassed, with the Expected Goals particularly telling the story of Spain’s domination:
Now we get another semifinal between two titans, where whatever England-Argentina lacks in pure Elo wattage — and to be clear, this is still a Final-caliber matchup on paper — is made up for by a long and simmering historical feud between the teams.
To make a long story short, this rivalry has it all, from on-field grievances to geopolitical ones. The bad-blood truly started to boil over during the 1966 quarterfinal, which England won 1-0 on a Geoff Hurst goal that was disputed by Argentina as being offside — you be the judge — and which also featured enough additional controversy to sustain decades of resentment:
A red card for Argentine captain Antonio Rattín, who had to be taken off the pitch by police
English manager Alf Ramsey refusing to let his team swap jerseys with Argentina and calling the opposition “animals” after the game
Argentina still refers to the match as El Robo del Siglo (”the Theft of the Century”)
The animosity somehow reached even greater status 20 years later in 1986, when Diego Maradona helped eliminate England with his infamous “Hand of God” goal — a handball-aided score that every official missed. According to Maradona, Argentina viewed the match as “symbolic revenge” for the UK defeating Argentina in the Falklands War. (Yes, really.) Throw in David Beckham’s red card in 1998, which helped pave the way for another English shootout defeat — and his redemptive penalty-kick in 2002 — and you have a matchup where the accumulated weight of history will hang over everything the players do on the pitch.
In terms of the actual soccer, there are arguments to make for each side. Argentina has been measurably better in the tournament thus far, with more goals scored (actual and Expected), the same or fewer actual/Expected goals conceded, a better actual and Expected goal differential, and a higher share of the possession:
But England has faced tougher opponents on average (by Elo rating), and while Argentina has Lionel Messi playing like, well, Lionel Messi, England can counter with two stars in top form: Harry Kane and, increasingly, Jude Bellingham. Also, overall stats aside, Argentina has been living dangerously en route to the semifinals — they needed extra time to beat a seemingly overmatched Cape Verde in the Round of 32, required a miraculous comeback from down 2-0 to Egypt in the 79th minute of their Round of 16 match, and even went to extra time against Switzerland (arguably the weakest team of the quarters) before punching their ticket here. The defending champs are nothing if not vulnerable.
But will England capitalize to make just their second Final in program history — and their first since winning the title at home in 1966? The prediction markets have the Three Lions favored at roughly 54%, but can you ever truly count a Messi squad out? We shall see — and with it, see who will face the uphill climb that is Spain in the Final on Sunday.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Dead day?
Today is the day after the MLB All-Star Game, which, again, is traditionally considered the “deadest day on the sports calendar”. (There’s a reason why ESPN’s ESPY Awards are always held this very day, and indeed, those are tonight at 8 p.m.) Across the major North American pro sports leagues — i.e., the NFL/MLB/NBA/NHL/WNBA — this particular week is getting “deader” in recent years, too.
Over the past 5 years, the average total number of major pro games per day during the week of the All-Star Game has decreased even as the number of games in surrounding weeks has remained basically the same. (In an instructive comparison, the number of games during Christmas week — the other most-dead period on the sports calendar — has only increased over that period, though so have the surrounding weeks in December/January.)
But the bright side is that this year’s ESPY-day dullness is saved by the World Cup semifinal — a consequence of this year’s expanded tournament — and the increased prominence of the WNBA and NBA Summer League, among other pastimes to keep us entertained at midsummer.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “WNBA Schedule Breakdown” by Chris Gunther
🏒 “The Sharks Curse still lives on” by Brendan Farrell
🏒 “An Addendum to Analyzing Penalties in the Stanley Cup Playoffs” by Edward Egros
🏀 “Rookie Roundup: Forwards fighting through adversity” by Rebecca Prenevost
🏀 “every loss is a reason: chicago drafted a teenager who runs on grievance, then built a roster that will produce it for him all season.” by bang! NBA
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (7/16)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Wings
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 1 (Royal Birkdale)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 12
Friday (7/17)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Storm at Fever
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 2
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 13 (Dole to Belfort)
Saturday (7/18)
⚽ World Cup: Third-place match - France vs. TBD 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Fever
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 3
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 14
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.