Victor Hedman Isn't Playing Like Victor Hedman Anymore
But that hasn't seemed to matter to the Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman is one of the greatest players of his generation… or any generation, for that matter.
Since 2013-14, only five players — Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov, all forwards — were more valuable according to goals above replacement (GAR) than Hedman, who beat out Brent Burns as the best D-man in the game. If we look at Hedman’s career path using GAR, nine of his 10 most similar retired players are in the Hall of Fame right now.
It would be stunning if Hedman doesn’t join them as enshrined in downtown Toronto someday. But something odd is happening to Hedman in this, his 14th NHL season: So far, Hedman ranks just 22nd among defensemen in adjusted GAR (roughly the same as Brandon Montour), putting him on pace for his lowest mark since 2014-15 and his second-lowest since he was a raw 22-year-old in 2012-13, figuring things out amidst a lockout.
The slide has come at both ends of the ice. On offense, Hedman is tracking for just 6 adjusted goals, which would be his first season in single-digits since 2012-13. While his adjusted assists are more in line with his typical output over that span, those too would be down 16 from last season’s career-high of 62. And on defense, Tampa Bay has nearly been out-Corsi’d with Hedman on the ice at 5-on-5 and the score close, the first time that’s been true since, you guessed it, 2012-13. (Their Corsi has also been worse with Hedman on than off, which has never been true during Tampa’s dynasty years.)
Are things due for a regression (in a good way) soon? Hedman’s 3.7% shooting percentage, 3.2 points below his career average, would suggest yes — but only to a degree. The truth of Hedman’s season is that he has struggled to find synergy in many of the defensive pairings he’s shuffled through this year after his regular partner last season, Jan Rutta, left for the Pittsburgh Penguins as a free agent. With Hedman and Rutta on the ice at 5-on-5 a year ago, Tampa Bay produced 53.4% of Corsi events, 54.7% of expected goals and 55.5% of scoring chances; with Hedman and current partner Zach Bogosian, those rates are down to 50.0%, 50.5% and 52.7%.
With their top defenseman, one of the best players in the entire league, suffering a down season, you might think the Lightning have suffered, too. But the truly odd thing is that Hedman’s decline hasn’t really seemed to affect Tampa’s overall performance. The team’s points percentage (.673 versus .671) and goals-per-game differential (+0.65 versus +0.66) are practically identical to what they were last season. The team’s goal-prevention is down slightly, mostly a function of allowing more shots per game — something that plays into Hedman’s decreased defensive GAR — but they’ve made up for it on the offensive end with more scoring relative to league average. We know that hasn’t been Hedman’s doing, but he can thank Kucherov, Brayden Point and Mikhail Sergachev for helping pick up the slack.
What does it mean for Hedman and the Lightning in the bigger picture? On the one hand, there’s a good line of questioning to be had about exactly how much prolific stats from the blueline can really translate to a team’s bottom line. (Paging Erik Karlsson, who is having a monster season for a San Jose Sharks team that isn’t any better than 20th in either offense or defense by GAR.) But don’t mistake the seeming lack of difference in team performance whether Hedman is playing well or not for an implication that the towering Swede is irrelevant to Tampa Bay’s chances.
If the Lightning are going to skate deep into the spring for a fourth straight year, Hedman needs to be prolific — the version of himself that averaged over 25 minutes per game while notching 59 points in 71 games. And if he gets back to that form, nobody will remember that the future Hall of Famer had a bit of a disappointing regular season along the way.