Happy Friday, everyone! We’ve reached the end of a busy week in sports that saw the NBA Cup narrow down its Final Four, the NFL playoff races heat up — including Thursday’s blown 28-14 lead by Tampa Bay that threw the NFC South race into total disarray — and plenty of the usual big pre-Christmas matchups in college basketball. It’s not going to stop this weekend, either! Here’s what to watch for on the sports slate tonight and over the next few days:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
NFL:
🏈 Bills (50%) at Patriots (50%), 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
🏈 Ravens (59%) at Bengals (41%), 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
🏈 Chargers (30%) at Chiefs (70%), 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
🏈 Lions (29%) at Rams (71%), 4:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX
🏈 Packers (56%) at Broncos (44%), 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
College Football:
🏈 Heisman Trophy ceremony, 7 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
NBA:
🏀 Hawks (27%) at Pistons (73%), 7 p.m. Friday, NBA TV
🏀 T-Wolves (46%) at Warriors (54%), 10 p.m. Friday, NBA TV
🏀 Magic (37%) vs. Knicks (63%), 5:30 p.m. Saturday, Prime Video (NBA Cup semifinal)
🏀 Spurs (19%) vs. Thunder (81%), 9 p.m. Saturday, Prime Video (NBA Cup semifinal)
NHL:
🏒 Capitals (56%) at Jets (44%), 7 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
🏒 Oilers (71%) at Maple Leafs (29%), 7 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
🏒 Panthers (36%) at Stars (64%), 8 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
College Hoops:
🏀 Arkansas (53%) at Texas Tech (47%), 12 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2
🏀 Arizona (57%) at Alabama (43%), 9:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
🏀 Oklahoma State (42%) at Oklahoma (58%), 4 p.m. Saturday, ESPNU (WBB)
🏀 Baylor (13%) at Texas (87%), 1 p.m. Sunday, ABC (WBB)
Soccer:
⚽ Liverpool (57%) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (22%), 10 a.m. Saturday, NBCSN/Peacock
⚽ Crystal Palace (24%) vs. Manchester City (53%), 9 a.m. Sunday, NBCSN/Peacock
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Strike a pose, Fernando
The Heisman Trophy is always a fascinating snapshot for the state of college football at any given moment in time — and this year’s award, which will be announced at the traditional ceremony in New York City on Saturday night at 7 p.m. ET, promises to be no different.
We had a bit more uncertainty in the prediction market odds this season than we did a year ago, when eventual winner Travis Hunter was a massive favorite to win by mid-November. The four finalists in 2025 — Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt), Julian Sayin (Ohio State), and Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) — were jumbled nearly evenly at the end of last month, and Mendoza, Sayin, and Pavia were still all very much in the mix together as recently as conference championship weekend. Only with Indiana’s victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game did Mendoza appear to separate himself, rising to his current level of 95% in the odds:
If and when Mendoza does win, it would reclaim the Heisman for quarterbacks after a year belonging to Hunter, a two-way unicorn who played wide receiver on offense and cornerback on defense for Colorado. With those kinds of exceptions, QBs have tended to monopolize the award in recent decades — Mendoza would be the 21st QB to win in the past 26 seasons — but that wasn’t always the case. Here’s a look at each winner’s position in 10-year rolling windows since the first Heisman Trophy was handed out in 1935:
Running backs had their heyday in the 1970s and early ’80s, peaking with a greater stronghold on the trophy than even QBs have at their peak. But that was a long time ago, and no RB has won the award since Alabama’s Derrick Henry in 2015. The trend is toward passing, as reflected by three of this year’s finalists being QBs (Mendoza, Pavia, Sayin) versus just one RB (Love).
The other, even bigger trend in college football is toward transfers — with the advent of the transfer portal and the abolition of rules that used to force players to sit out and lose a year of eligibility if they transferred, both changes coming in the past decade. As a result, the vast majority of all Heisman winners who transferred before winning the award have come since 2017. And if Mendoza (who played two seasons at Cal before moving to IU) does win, it would mean transfers have won the award in each of the past four years — and seven of the past nine.
All of which is to say: a lot has changed in college football since Chicago’s Jay Berwanger won the first Heisman almost a century ago. But what hasn’t changed is the pomp and circumstance of the event, and the prestige of the club that Mendoza is almost certainly about to join Saturday.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
An Avalanche of talent
The Colorado Avalanche are tearing up the NHL this season — and, as I wrote this week, a lot of that is due to the trio of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Nečas, each of whom is tracking among the league’s top 5 players by adjusted Goals Above Replacement. MacKinnon is on pace for one of the greatest non-goalie seasons in NHL history, Makar is flirting with a peak that rivals Bobby Orr’s best years, and Nečas has unexpectedly vaulted into superstar territory after arriving from Carolina via trade last year. At their current rates, the three could combine for the most GAR ever by a trio of teammate skaters in a single season.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Lakers’ defensive issues are exposed in NBA Cup loss. Is any help on the way?” by Dan Woike
⚾ “MLB Offseason Spending Heats Up With Trio of Big-Money Deals” by Eric Fisher
🏈 “L.A. Rams Confidential” by Mike Tanier
🏈 “Indiana football’s unprecedented rise” by Craig Meyer
🏈 “Behold! I have updated stadium alcohol sales data from October!” by Matt Brown
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Here’s what’s coming over the next few days:
Saturday (12/13)
🏀 Knicks vs. Magic (NBA Cup semifinals)
🏀 Thunder vs. Spurs (NBA Cup semifinals)
🏈 Army vs. Navy
🏈 Heisman Trophy presentation 🏆
🏒 Panthers at Stars
🏒 Capitals at Jets
🏒 Oilers at Maple Leafs
🏀 Arkansas at Texas Tech
🏀 Nebraska at Illinois
🏀 Arizona at Alabama
🏀 UCLA at Gonzaga
🏀 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (WBB)
🏀 UConn at USC (WBB)
⚽ Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool (Premier League)
Sunday (12/14)
🏈 Lions at Rams
🏈 Packers at Broncos
🏈 Bills at Patriots
🏈 Ravens at Bengals
🏈 Chargers at Chiefs
🏈 Colts at Seahawks
🏀 Lakers at Suns
🏀 Warriors at Blazers
🏒 Flyers at Hurricanes
🏒 Oilers at Canadiens
🏀 Baylor at Texas (WBB)
🏀 Louisville at UNC (WBB)
Monday (12/15)
🏈 Dolphins at Steelers (Monday Night Football)
🏀 Rockets at Nuggets
🏀 Pistons at Celtics
🏒 Panthers at Lightning
🏒 Kings at Stars
🏀 South Florida at Vanderbilt (WBB)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.