The Week That Was (August 25-29, 2025)
A roundup of what I wrote, read, watched, etc. over the past week.
In this space on Saturdays, I do a weekly round-up of sorts: Sifting through what I wrote that you might have missed during the week, what I’ve been reading and watching myself, and some other fun things that have been going on.
What I did this week
Here are the things I wrote or podcasted about during the previous week, sorted in descending order by quality, popularity and/or current relevance.
🏈 Is Micah Parsons the Next Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack or Ndamukong Suh? - After trading for Parsons and handing him the richest non-QB deal ever, the Packers are betting he’ll be a rare exception to the long, mostly ugly history of defensive megadeals. His youth and dominance give him a better shot than most — but history says the risk is real.
⚾ The Curse of Rafael Devers - Boston looked like the loser when it traded away its disgruntled star, but the Red Sox have surged into contention while the Giants collapsed after acquiring him. These bizarre with-or-without-you splits give Devers’ 2025 one of the strangest traded-player arcs in recent MLB history — a season where his presence seemed to sink two teams, while his absence lifted them up.
🏀 Is A'ja Wilson About to Rain on Napheesa Collier's MVP Parade? (Again?) - Collier has long looked like the MVP favorite as the best player on the league’s best team, but Wilson’s scorching August surge has vaulted her back into the race. With Collier holding the narrative edge and Wilson the statistical case, the WNBA’s top award may come down to the wire.
⚾ The Hall of Fame Really Does Hate Center Fielders — and LFs and 2Bs, and Especially 3Bs - A regression analysis shows HOF voters give huge boosts to catchers, first basemen and right fielders, while consistently underrating CFs, LFs, 2Bs and especially 3Bs. Until those biases shift, Cooperstown’s omissions will keep fueling entries in my Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players.
🏁 Who’s under the most pressure in the Round of 16? - Firing up my NASCAR playoffs model again — with its 10,000 playoff simulations — I found that Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry and Austin Dillon face the biggest make-or-break swings as NASCAR’s postseason begins. With Darlington carrying huge leverage for advancement odds, the Round of 16 opens under intense pressure where every lap could decide who survives.
🏁🎧 Podracing’s Prediction-Packed Playoff Preview - In this week’s episode of Podracing, Tyler and I deliver the Playoff Preview you’ve been waiting for. First we recapped Ryan Blaney’s win in the dramatic Daytona cutoff race and the bizarre Zilisch/Kligerman Xfinity win (a real W for Parker, but not in the stats). Then it was off to my forecast model to preview the newly set playoff field — including the overall favorites, which drivers are already under pressure at Darlington, and the biggest Round of 16 nemeses. Finally, we reset our one-and-done picks with 10 races to go. Let the postseason chaos begin!
🏈 What If The Chicago Bears Are Actually Good? - After decades of false hope, the Bears enter 2025 with real upside thanks to Caleb Williams’ rookie performance last year and new coach Ben Johnson’s offensive pedigree. Positive regression to the mean in close games, plus potential QB growth, could make Chicago a genuine playoff contender — if they can finally break their cycle of disappointment.
⚾️🎙️ Podcast: Why So Many MLB "What-Ifs" Run Through the Mets (w/ Andrew Wyrich) -I talked with Andrew Wyrich , creator of the Almost A Met newsletter, about the franchise’s long history of near-signings and trades that never happened. We dug into how those “almosts” shaped baseball history, why fans are fascinated by them, and how Steve Cohen’s Mets are (and aren’t) changing that narrative.
🏀 How returns of Collier, Clark, more could impact WNBA playoffs - With stars like Collier, Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas and Caitlin Clark having returned (or returning soon) from various injuries, Minnesota, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and Indiana all project to be stronger than their regular-season numbers suggest. I attempt to adjust for this by estimating the effect of each loss on the team’s SRS and title odds.
🏈 Programming Note: Check out my 📈2025 NFL Power Ratings and Projections, now updated for Parsons joining the Packers!
Some interesting things I read/watched this week
A collection of articles (with a heavy focus on my fellow Substackers), videos and other media that I enjoyed and/or found thought-provoking over the past week. I don’t always 100% agree with or endorse what’s linked here… but that’s also sort of the point.
🏀 Is Kevin Garnett the GOAT of the Last 30 Years — or Just the Best Defensive Player? by Jeremias Engelmann
🏀 WNBA Parity and the Effects of Expansion w/ Bob Bellotti by Aaron Bollwinkel and Bob Bellotti (Note: As someone who grew up reading Bob’s Basketball Analyst books, I was excited to see that he is here on Substack!)
🏀 Efficiently Controversial // The Impact of Free Throw Merchants & Mebounds by Chris Gunther
🏀 SLAM Magazine Review - June 1999 // Diesel, Spencer Haywood, and a beeper. by Chris Shorts
🏀 In 1994, Scottie Pippen made NBA history by Jack M Silverstein
🏀 WNBA Workshop: Updating Thoughts on Randomness, Misled Market by Jeff Fogle
🏀 The Nerd Who Knew Too Much by Pablo Torre (Note: I had a handful of interactions with Martin Manley while I was at Sports-Reference, and the way he chose to end things both did — and didn’t — shock me. So I had heard of him! But you should watch Pablo’s deep dive on his story whether you have or haven’t.)
🏈 NFL Closing Arguments by Mike Tanier: the Super Bowl Contenders, Playoff Hopefuls, Meh Teams and Stinky-Poo Teams
🏈 Risers and fallers: Which programs are going to move the needle? by Griffin Olah
🏈 Trapped in an elevator of mediocrity // Some thoughts about the last 25 years of Carolina football by Chris
🏈 The Parcells Test: Which 2026 College Quarterbacks Meet the Criteria? by Cody Alexander
🏈 Intellectual Brutality by VP
🏈 QB Contour Maps for the NFL and College Football by Ray Carpenter
⚾ Is this the year the Padres will finally win it all? by Molly Knight
🎧 HoS: Mike Solana on the Culture Cold War by Ethan Strauss and Mike Solana
🤖 Is the "A.I." "bubble" "bursting"? // The long shadow of crypto by Max Read
📚 Book Review: "Breakneck" // In which Dan Wang offers a compelling theory of China vs. America. by Noah Smith (Note: Very interesting thesis here: “America is run by lawyers, and China is run by engineers.”)
Old YouTube skate video Game of the Week
Jeremy Wray’s "Second Hand Smoke" part
Music to Play Us Out
“The Breakdown” - People Under the Stairs
Filed under: Weekly Round-up
Thank you, Neil, I really appreciate you including my piece in your roundup. It made my day. I always enjoy reading the articles you highlight.
Thanks for including me! I hope you are doing well :)