The Rays' Hot Start Is Historic

They're undefeated -- and dominating.

The major leagues have one undefeated team remaining: the Tampa Bay Rays, who’ve now made it through seven games without a loss to start the 2023 season. While that’s not yet in the territory of the 1875 Boston Red Stockings, who opened the season 26-0 before suffering their first loss, it is pretty good for modern teams — among whom the record for undefeated starts is a two-way tie between the 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers at 13-0.

But what’s especially impressive is just how Tampa Bay has been winning these games to start the season.

The Rays have beaten their opponents by a total of 35 runs, 53-18, which is tied for ninth-best all-time among teams who started 7-0 and ranks second-best since 1901, trailing only the 1962 Cardinals’ +42 mark. What’s more, they’re sort of like the UConn men’s basketball team in this past NCAA Tournament — stay with me here — in the sense that none of their games have even been especially close.

In the entire history of MLB, only four 7-0 teams have won every single one of those games by at least 4 runs. Three did it in the 1870s… and the other is Tampa Bay in 2023.

Does it bear mentioning that the Rays have easily faced MLB’s weakest schedule so far by average opponent Elo rating? Sure. But we also know about the power of hot starts in April. And a combination of Tampa “banking” it’s 7-0 record, plus probably being better than we expected before the season, has now bumped the Rays’ projection in the FiveThirtyEight model from 86 wins and a 52% playoff probability in spring training to 91 wins and a 70% chance to make the playoffs today. That’s what you get when you go over an entire week without a loss to start the season — and blow the doors off of everyone in the process.