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Happy Monday and happy March as well, with the calendar flipping to a new month over the weekend — and traditionally, it’s one of the busiest on the sports calendar. Men’s and women’s college basketball dominate the conversation, especially in the back half of the month, while we’re close to new seasons for Formula 1 and MLB as well, with a little World Baseball Classic thrown in while we’re at it. And of course, the NBA, NHL, and Premier League seasons are in their final stretches, too. Today we focus on the latter — but don’t worry, we’ll have a lot more on F1, the WBC, and plenty else later in the week. In the meantime, here’s what we’re watching on today’s docket:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
NBA:
🏀 Celtics (75%) at Bucks (25%)* - 7:30 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏀 Clippers (53%) at Warriors (47%) - 10 p.m. (Peacock)
NHL:
🏒 Red Wings (51%) at Predators (49%) - 2 p.m. (NHL NET)
🏒 Blue Jackets (53%) at Rangers (47%) - 7 p.m. (NHL NET)
🏒 Hurricanes (62%) at Kraken (38%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Avalanche (62%) at Kings (38%) - 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
College Hoops:
🏀 Duke (84%) at NC State (16%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Iowa State (24%) at Arizona (76%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Soccer:
⚽ Real Madrid (74%) vs. Getafe (10%) - 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Can Arsenal finish the job?
After completing Sunday’s action, the English Premier League has 10 more matchweeks left on the 2025-26 schedule — and things could get very interesting from here.
In the league table through Matchweek 28, Arsenal leads with 64 points, followed by Manchester City at 59 points and a two-way tie for third between Manchester United and Aston Villa at 51 points apiece. That has the prediction markets viewing things as a two-team race between Arsenal (64%) and Man City (34%), with Man United just barely sneaking into the picture as well at 2%. (Sorry, Villa.)
This snapshot matches up with recent history as well. In either 23 or 24 of the 33 completed EPL seasons from 1992-93 through 2024-25 — depending on how you treat seasons where the leader was ahead on a goal-differential tiebreaker — the leader after Matchweek 28 ended up being the team that lifted the trophy. That’s roughly a 70% success rate for a team in Arsenal’s current position.
However, that data nugget doesn’t factor in the key historical context: this is Arsenal we’re talking about. Arsenal hasn’t won the Premiership since 2003-04, more than two decades ago. They have, however, finished second or third nine times in the intervening years, including a current streak of three consecutive runner-up finishes from 2022-23 through 2024-25:
Furthermore, Arsenal themselves have been responsible for a number of the instances above where the leader through Matchweek 28 failed to win the title. In 2007-08, 2022-23, and 2023-24, they either led outright or co-led at this exact same stage of the season, only to be overtaken before the end of the schedule. In fact, in that 2022-23 campaign, they were in the exact same spot — leading Manchester City by 5 points — as they are right now; they ended up losing by 5 points in the end. Toss in their pre-drought collapse in 2002-03 (when they blew a 5-point lead over United to lose by 5), and Arsenal has converted just once in the past five cases where they led (or co-led) the EPL table through 28 weeks.
Maybe that’s why the market odds are a bit lower for them than the average leader at this stage of an EPL season — even though their current cushion is fairly typical for the leader at this point. (Historically, the top club has held a lead of 5 points or fewer after 28 games roughly 53% of the time.) Can Arsenal change their luck this time, or are they fated for another late-season collapse? We’ll find out over the next few months.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
The king, dethroned (for now)
For all of the talk (by me and others) about how unbeatable NASCAR’s all-time road-racing king, Shane van Gisbergen, would be on twisty tracks like the Circuit of the Americas — this weekend’s Cup Series destination — he was beaten fair and square by Tyler Reddick, who won for a record third straight time to open the season. What was even more shocking was that he didn’t challenge Reddick very much, leading only two of a possible 95 laps on Sunday. Not only was that share, 2%, SVG’s lowest in any road-course race since September 2024, but it was also the only time his share was even held below 19% in that seven-race stretch, which included the five-race win streak that was snapped this week.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Quantifying Excitement” by Michael Beuoy
🏈 “Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Defensive Positions” by Kevin Cole
🏀 “Statistical Red Flags and The Guys Who Beat Them, Volume Two” by Maxwell Baumbach
🏈 “Let’s Bleed Together: Choppin’ It Up at the NFL Combine” by Mike Tanier
🏀 “A Magical Night in Moraga” by JDB College Hoops
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (3/3)
🏀 NBA: Spurs at Sixers
🏀 NBA: Suns at Kings
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Devils
🏒 NHL: Lightning at Wild
⚽ EPL: AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford
Wednesday (3/4)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Knicks
🏀 NBA: Hawks at Bucks
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Devils
🏒 NHL: Blues at Kraken
⚽ EPL: Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
⚽ EPL: Newcastle United vs. Manchester United
Thursday (3/5)
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Rockets
🏀 NBA: Lakers at Nuggets
🏒 NHL: Sabres at Penguins
🏒 NHL: Islanders at Kings
🏀 MBB: Michigan at Iowa
⛳ Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.