The Leafs Are Blowing This. (Of Course They Are.)
Once up 2-0 on the defending champs, Toronto's blowout loss Wednesday has pushed them to the brink.
About a week ago, the vibes around the Toronto Maple Leafs — yes, those Toronto Maple Leafs — were high. They’d just held off the Florida Panthers in Game 2 of the East semis to claim a 2-0 series lead over the defending Stanley Cup champs. Though the series was shifting to Florida, the Leafs were looking good, having gotten the timely scoring and goaltending edge (despite an early Game 1 injury to starter Anthony Stolarz) that they’d usually been lacking in past playoff flops.
I even joked that the papal conclave had decided the Leafs would win the Stanley Cup this year, at long last. But what once seemed ordained to be heavenly redemption for one of pro sports’ most cursed franchises has turned into another full-blown crisis of faith. Florida won Games 3-4 at home (the former of which came in OT) to even up the series, and as Leaf fans gathered with nervous energy to defend home-ice in Wednesday’s crucial Game 5, Toronto came out flat in the second period and was ultimately destroyed 6-1 to put the entire season on the brink.
So much for divine intervention.
Instead, the Leafs’ fall from grace has been swift, brutal and entirely on-brand — the latest addition to a book of suffering that Toronto fans know all too well. Since going up 2-0, those three straight losses have dropped their odds to win the series from 81 percent at their peak to just 21 percent entering Game 6, according to my Elo forecast model. And their Stanley Cup chances? Down from a league-best 24 percent on May 8 to just 7 percent now:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Neil’s Substack to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.