Neil’s Substack

Neil’s Substack

The 2026 QB Market is Full of Chaos Agents

Seldom have we seen a group of quarterbacks on the move in an offseason with so much variance in their potential performance.

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Neil Paine
Mar 10, 2026
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Quarterback Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals points downfield in action during a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023. (Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

(Note: All teams listed are as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Monday evening.)

The NFL’s “legal tampering” period opened Monday, and the reported moves came fast and furious. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III hopped to the Chiefs; Mike Evans left the Bucs after 12 years to join the 49ers; Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum went to the Raiders while shattering the record for interior-lineman contracts. Pass-rushing LB Jaelan Phillips went across the NFC from Philly to Carolina, while 1,000-yard WR Alec Pierce signed an extension to stay with the Colts.

But as usual, the quarterbacks remain the centers of attention. Chief among them Monday was Malik Willis, whom the Miami Dolphins gave a three-year, $67.5 million deal (with $45 million guaranteed) to be their new starting QB. The move came in concert with the not-unexpected release of longtime starter Tua Tagovailoa, officially ending the lefty’s once-promising era of leading explosive offenses in South Florida.

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(It was announced later in the day that Tua was joining the Falcons on a one-year deal.)

Around the same time, the Cardinals informed Kyler Murray that they plan to release him at the start of the new league year on Wednesday, ending what was his own seven-season run in Arizona with no shortage of highs and lows. Elsewhere, Kirk Cousins prepared for his own release from Atlanta, and Geno Smith’s exit from Las Vegas appears imminent with No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza on the horizon.

And we’re still waiting to see the final outcomes of Aaron Rodgers’ retirement (or not), Daniel Jones’ transition-tag situation (which could see another team make an offer that Indy would be able to match), Derek Carr’s unretirement, and potential trades involving the likes of Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew and Spencer Rattler.

Yes, some QBs, such as Marcus Mariota with the Commanders and Tyler Huntley with the Ravens, returned to their teams from the previous season. But this is an NFL offseason where at least a third of the league or more is going to be changing starters under center for all or some of the year — and maybe the biggest common thread uniting the names on the move is that they are almost all boom-or-bust wild cards.

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