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Happy Monday, and welcome to a brand-new sports week! Sunday led us into the action with plenty of drama, as the underdog Canadiens and Ducks grabbed wins on the ice and the NBA provided chaos both on the court — Victor Wembanyama was ejected early while the T-Wolves tied their series versus the Spurs — and off — the Wizards won the draft lottery while the Pacers lost their pick to the fickle fate of the ping-pong balls. In today’s newsletter, we’ll break down maybe the most dramatic comeback of the day Sunday while also looking ahead to the biggest sporting event in the world. And as always, here’s what we’re keeping an eye on with today’s schedule:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Pistons (40%) at Cavaliers (60%),* Game 4 (DET leads 2-1) - 8 p.m. (NBC)
🏀 Thunder (81%) at Lakers (19%), Game 4 (OKC leads 3-0) - 10:30 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨- LeBron James’ final NBA game?
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Avalanche (56%) at Wild (44%), Game 4 (COL leads 2-1) - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
MLB:
⚾ Yankees (62%) at Orioles (38%) - 6:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Mariners (57%) at Astros (43%) - 8:10 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ Giants (37%) at Dodgers (63%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
WNBA:
🏀 No games
Soccer:
⚽ Premier League: Tottenham (55%) vs. Leeds (22%) - 3 p.m. (USA Network) - Tottenham still has a 14% chance of relegation
Tennis:
🎾 Italian Open, men’s (Jannik Sinner 74% to win) and women’s (Iga Swiatek 33% to win) singles
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Sneak peek
Today is May 11, which means the biggest event on 2026’s sports calendar — with apologies to the Super Bowl, Olympics, and various league championship finals — is exactly one month away. Yes, the FIFA World Cup will provide the sporting world’s largest stage, so we thought now would be a good time to take an early peek at the prediction market odds around the tournament:
France and Spain are your top-tier favorites going in, with each sitting just below 20% odds to win the trophy — though that makes this year’s World Cup a bit more wide-open than usual. Below them, three other teams (England, Brazil, and the defending champs, Argentina) are in double digits as well, with Portugal close at 8%.
Traders certainly seem bullish on Europe overall. Six of the top 8 teams in the overall odds are from the continent, with the usual South American powers of Brazil and Argentina further down than we might expect. Brazil in particular hasn’t won a World Cup since 2002, which is on the verge of becoming the longest drought in the nation’s history — or at least matching the first 28 years the event existed, before the Seleção won their first title in 1958.
Japan joining the next group of teams is also striking, perhaps signaling their further development as one of the soccer world’s greatest overachievers — with a chance to make it beyond the round of 16 for the first time in their history. On the other hand, the market seems somewhat skeptical that Morocco and Croatia can replicate their Cinderella runs from 2022, though it does think there’s a chance.
And what of the hosts? The US, Mexico, and Canada all seem to be getting a home-field bump here, as Canada has a 28% chance to make the round of 16 — they’ve never made it past the group stage before (and remember that this year’s knockouts have a round of 32 for the first time, too) — while Mexico has 25% odds to make the quarterfinals for the first time since 1986, and the Americans have a 27% shot at their first quarterfinal appearance since 2002 as well.
Whether because of the new expanded format or just more parity in global soccer overall, there does appear to be more uncertainty in this year’s odds — even if a pecking order clearly still exists. At the very least, no one looks unbeatable, which means next month could give us the kind of tournament where history rides on just a few bounces in one direction or another.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
He’s the GOAT for a reason
On Friday, we told you about how NASCAR trends were colliding in upstate New York: either the greatest road racer in history (Shane van Gisbergen) would get back to his unbeatable ways after a rare non-victory in March, or perhaps we’d be seeing a new paradigm play out in the sport in real time. And for a while in the late stages of Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen, the latter seemed to be true — after a pit stop, SVG was behind 23 cars with 24 laps left in the race, a seemingly insurmountable deficit even with new tires on his Chevy Camaro. But that’s when the GOAT got to work, passing every single car in front of him in the span of just 17 laps to claim his seventh career road course win (and sixth in his past seven tries) with time to spare.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Winners and Losers of the NBA Draft Lottery” by Above the Break
⚾ “Why Everyone Throws 100 MPH Now” by Joon Lee
🎾 “Should tennis players be paid more at the Grand Slams?” by Nikola Vuković
🏒 “Who are the NHL’s Underrated Goalies?” by GabArr
⚾ “How far did Pujols fall?” by Sean
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (5/12)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: T-Wolves at Spurs, Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Sabres at Canadiens, Game 4 (MTL leads 2-1)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Ducks at Golden Knights, Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Braves
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Fire
⚽ NWSL: Boston at Orlando Pride
Wednesday (5/13)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavs at Pistons, Game 5
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Lakers at Thunder, Game 5 (if necessary)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Wild at Avalanche, Game 5
⚾ MLB: Rays at Blue Jays
🏀 WNBA: Aces at Sun
⚽ MLS: FC Cincinnati at Inter Miami CF
Thursday (5/14)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Sabres, Game 5
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Ducks, Game 6
⚾ MLB: Padres at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Wings
⚽ LALIGA: Real Madrid vs. Real Oviedo
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship (Aronimink Golf Club - Newtown Square, PA)
🏈 NFL: 2026 schedule released
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.