Subscribe to Scoreboard by clicking here! Read the archive here.
Happy Tuesday, as we keep moving quickly into a busy week in sports. Hopefully you are having nearly as good a start to the week as Trent McDuffie, Tyler Linderbaum, Alec Pierce, and Jaelan Phillips, each of whom signed deals in excess of $80 million guaranteed in the opening frenzy of NFL free agency on Monday. We’ll have more of a rundown on who got how much down below, plus we pay tribute to a wild Shai Gilgeous-Alexander streak in the NBA — any time you are matching Wilt Chamberlain’s records, you’re probably making history. (I will refrain from making the obvious joke about Wilt and scoring records here.) But that’s not all we’re watching across the sports landscape. Here’s what to keep an eye on today as the March calendar ramps up:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
WBC:
⚾ Canada (27%) vs. Puerto Rico (73%)* - 7 p.m. (Tubi)
⚾ Italy (8%) vs. United States (92%) - 9 p.m. (FS1)
NBA:
🏀 Celtics (43%) at Spurs (57%) - 8 p.m. (NBC)
🏀 Raptors (35%) at Rockets (65%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 T-Wolves (55%) at Lakers (45%) - 11 p.m. (NBC)
NHL:
🏒 Penguins (34%) at Hurricanes (66%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Blue Jackets (32%) at Lightning (68%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Golden Knights (40%) at Stars (60%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Oilers (38%) at Avalanche (62%) - 10 p.m. (TNT)
College Hoops:
🏀 Santa Clara (28%) vs. Gonzaga (72%) - 9 p.m. (West Coast Conference tournament - final)
🏀 Men’s conference tournaments: CAA, Horizon, MAAC, Northeast, West Coast championships; Big Sky, Southland semifinals; ACC, Big 12, Big Ten first rounds
🏀 Women’s conference tournaments: Horizon, Mountain West, West Coast championships; Big Sky semifinals; Southland quarterfinals
Soccer:
⚽ Champions League: Barcelona (41%) vs. Newcastle (36%) - 4 p.m. (Paramount+)
Tennis:
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Men’s: Carlos Alcaraz 55% to win; Women’s: Aryna Sabalenka 34% to win
Paralympics:
🏅 Event finals in Para alpine skiing (6x) and Para cross-country skiing (6x)
🏅 Competitions in Para ice hockey and wheelchair curling
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
SGA: Superhumanly Great, Always
Much to Adam Silver’s chagrin, sometimes it can be hard to find mid-March NBA contests that feel like stakes are on the line. The NBA regular season is way too long and way too filled with tanking and/or load management for these games to mean much during the dog days of the schedule. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t still find small pockets of excitement and meaning sometimes.
Such was the case Monday night, when the Oklahoma City Thunder played host to the Denver Nuggets. Not only was it a rematch of last year’s Western Conference semifinal matchup, won by OKC in seven hard-fought games, as well as a potential playoff matchup again in the West this season (between two of the conference’s three leading favorites). But it was also a battle between the perennial MVP front-runners, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić — who’ve finished 1-2 (in some configuration) in each of the past two years’ voting for the award, and were both among the leading favorites this year as well until Jokić may have missed too many games to qualify.
Jokić had a gem of a game, with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists. But the star of the show was Gilgeous-Alexander, whose 35 points (to go with 15 assists) included a dagger of a step-back 3 to break a tie with seconds remaining in the game. After the win, SGA is now an 89% favorite to win his second consecutive MVP, according to the prediction markets — which would have him join Jokić (who won in 2021 and 2022) among the select club of back-to-back winners:
But even that wasn’t the biggest headline from SGA’s night. Those 35 points we mentioned above also represented the 126th consecutive time (!) he scored at least 20 points, matching Wilt Chamberlain’s record streak set from 1961-63.
The last time Gilgeous-Alexander failed to break 20? October 30, 2024 — 497 days ago. (And the second to last time he scored under 20 was 696 days ago!) The man is a machine, not least because he is in the 92nd percentile or better among NBA players in usage rate, true shooting percentage, free throw percentage, and, yes, drawing fouls as a share of shots taken. Being able to frequently get to the line is a great way to build a “floor” into your scoring output — though it’s not always foolproof. In last night’s game, SGA went only 4-for-4 from the line, scoring his other 31 points from the field.
When will the streak end? Kalshi has a market on how long the streak might last, and traders give him a (surprisingly low) 64% chance to break Chamberlain’s record in the game against Boston on Thursday, a 44% chance of extending it another game to 127 straight, a 5% chance of getting to 135 in a row, and even a 1% chance of pushing it to 175.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Show me the (semi-guaranteed) money
NFL free agency — or, if you prefer, the league’s “legal tampering” 😉 period — opened Monday, resulting in a flurry of moves (and dollar figures) being reported throughout the day. But in the NFL, the headline number is only part of the story. Because of how the salary cap rules work, these deals are usually best understood as containing a mix of real and theoretical money — i.e., the cash a player is guaranteed to receive versus the amount that depends on them staying healthy, productive, and on the roster. Here’s a look at every contract signed on Day 1 that was worth at least $40 million overall, broken out into guaranteed and non-guaranteed money:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Should we now bet Lakers without LeBron?” by Doug Kezirian
🏀 “Résumé Tetris” by Chris Gallo
🏀 “Why Kon Knueppel Is The NBA Rookie of the Year Over Cooper Flagg” by Nathan Grubel
⚾ “Baseball Analytics Aren’t Broken, They Just Need Updating” by Edward Egros
📌 “Teams without a City/State Name.” by Gameplan Creative
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (3/11)
⚾ WBC: Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela
⚾ WBC: Italy vs. Mexico
🏀 NBA: Nuggets vs. Rockets
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves vs. Clippers
🏒 NHL: Flyers vs. Capitals
🏒 NHL: Senators vs. Canadiens
🏀 MBB: Big Sky, Patriot League, Southland championships; ACC, Big 12, Big Ten second rounds; SEC, Big East first rounds
🏀 WBB: Big Sky championship; Southland semifinals; MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC quarterfinals
⚽ Champions League: Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
⚽ Champions League: PSG vs. Chelsea
Thursday (3/12)
🏀 NBA: Sixers at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Stars
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, Big West, MAC, WAC, CUSA, SWAC, MEAC quarterfinals; Big Ten third round; SEC second round
🏀 WBB: Southland championship; Northeast, Patriot League semifinals; American, Big West, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC quarterfinals; CAA second round; Missouri Valley first round
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
Friday (3/13)
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: South Korea vs. Pool D winner
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: Pool A runner-up vs. Pool B winner
🏀 NBA: Cavs at Mavs
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Warriors
🏒 NHL: Kings at Islanders
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Blues
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, American, Atlantic 10, MAC, WAC, CUSA, SWAC, MEAC semifinals; Big Ten, SEC, Big West quarterfinals
🏀 WBB: America East championship; American, Big West, MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC, WAC semifinals; CAA, Missouri Valley, Ivy League quarterfinals
⚽ NWSL: Washington Spirit vs. Portland Thorns FC
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.