Happy New Year’s Eve, and thanks to everyone who signed up to read our newsletter! As we look ahead to what promises to be a jam-packed 2026 in sports, we’ve got the Winter Olympics in Italy, a World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico, and another edition of the World Baseball Classic on tap as well, in addition to the usual Sturm und Drang of the modern sports calendar. But before we can get to all that, there is unfinished business to take care of from 2025 — perhaps chief among which being the College Football Playoff, which resumes tonight with Miami and Ohio State kicking off a second round reserved for heavy hitters only. Here’s what we’re watching there and everywhere else in sports over the next few days:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S (AND TOMORROW’S) DANCE
The Main Events
Wednesday (12/31):
🏈 CFB: Miami (23%) vs. Ohio State (77%)* - 7:30 p.m. (College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)
🏈 CFB: Iowa (37%) vs. Vanderbilt (63%) - 12 p.m. (ReliaQuest Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Arizona State (40%) vs. Duke (60%) - 2 p.m. (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Michigan (28%) vs. Texas (72%) - 3 p.m. (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Nebraska (18%) vs. Utah (82%) - 3:30 p.m. (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl)
🏀 NBA: Knicks (45%) at Spurs (55%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 NBA: Nuggets (29%) at Raptors (71%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 NBA: Blazers (11%) at Thunder (89%) - 8 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Sabres (39%) at Stars (61%) - 8 p.m. (Brett Hull skate-in-crease classic)
🏒 NHL: Blues (25%) at Avalanche (75%) - 9 p.m.
🏀 MBB: UConn (88%) at Xavier (12%) - 5 p.m.
🏀 WBB: TCU (82%) at BYU (18%) - 9 p.m.
Thursday (1/1): Happy New Year! 🎊
🏈 CFB: Oregon (55%) vs. Texas Tech (45%) - 12 p.m. (College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Alabama (30%) vs. Indiana (70%) - 4 p.m. (College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential)
🏈 CFB: Ole Miss (30%) vs. Georgia (70%) - 8 p.m. (College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl)
🏀 NBA: Heat (32%) at Pistons (68%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Lightning (49%) at Kings (51%) - 7 p.m.
⚽ EPL: Crystal Palace (45%) vs. Fulham (29%) - 12:30 p.m.
🏀 WBB: Alabama (3%) at South Carolina (97%) - 2 p.m.
🏀 WBB: Kentucky (27%) at LSU (73%) - 8 p.m.
All listed times are Eastern.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
The big boys’ bracket begins
Now that the mismatches of Round 1 are over in the College Football Playoff — sorry, Tulane and James Madison — we can finally turn our attention today and tomorrow to Round 2, where it’s nothing but heavyweight bouts from here on. Here’s a quick primer on what the prediction markets see in store for the four CFP quarterfinal contests, and what might flip the odds on their head:
🏈 Ohio State-Miami: The tables have turned since this matchup from the 2002-03 national title game, with the Buckeyes now playing the role of heavy favorites (at 77% to win) and the Hurricanes looking to pull off what would be a major upset (albeit less than the one OSU had in ’03: the ’Canes are 9.5-point underdogs today, versus 11.5 for the Buckeyes back then). Ohio State is the best team remaining in the field, according to Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings, and they mirror everything Miami does well — with a strong defense and an offense that doesn’t need to dominate to win — but at a higher level. If the Hurricanes win, it will have to look like their ugly 10-3 victory over Texas A&M in the playoff first round, but that formula gets very difficult if Miami falls behind early.
🏈 Texas Tech-Oregon: Despite being the better seed (No. 4 versus No. 5) and having more rest, Texas Tech is considered the underdog here by the prediction markets, with Oregon carrying a 55-45 edge in the probabilities. The metrics are fairly split on the matchup, with TTU ranking slightly higher in SRS ratings, while UO looks better in ESPN’s Football Power Index because of superior balance. The Red Raiders also have a few more injury question marks, but the major chess match to determine this will be whether Oregon’s stellar offense can turn this into a track meet, the way they did en route to 514 yards of offense against JMU, or if Texas Tech’s higher-rated defense can slow down the Ducks and/or force turnovers (as Oregon quarterback Dante Moore can be forced into risky throws).
🏈 Indiana-Alabama: In terms of college football brand names, Alabama has a lot more historical clout than Indiana does. But on the field, the prediction markets see the Hoosiers as clear favorites, giving them a 70-30 edge. Indiana ranks No. 1 in FPI and No. 3 in SRS, versus respective placements of No. 8 and No. 14 for Alabama. While the Crimson Tide poured on 34 points in Round 1 to overcome a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma, IU is better defensively than OU was — and the Alabama defense must contend with Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza on the other side of the ball. Indiana is unlikely to make the same mistakes (particularly on special teams) that Oklahoma did to allow Alabama back into their matchup, which means the Tide must play a highly disciplined and efficient game if they hope to have a chance.
🏈 Georgia-Ole Miss: On paper, this has the potential to be the best game of the second round, despite a similar 70-30 split in the odds for the favorite (in this case, UGA) as the rest of the quarterfinals. But it all depends on how the matchup plays out: when Ole Miss has the ball, it will be strength-on-strength, as the Rebels rank ninth in SRS offense and the Dawgs are sixth on defense. But going the other way, it will be all about how Mississippi’s 31st-ranked defense contains Georgia’s 20th-ranked offense. In what was otherwise a blowout first-round win for Ole Miss over Tulane, the Green Wave did move the ball on the Rebels’ defense, but also turned it over three times. If Georgia can do the former without the latter, they should be in position to advance.
To close out our Round 2 preview, here’s the current state of the overall prediction market odds as we peer further down the road to the national championship:
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Most dominant teams of 2025
I’m a sucker for big, cross-sport comparisons, so I enjoyed this piece by Sean Beney about the most dominant teams across all sports in 2025. For his methodology, Beney took the z-score (i.e., standard deviations above average) of SRS ratings for each team in each league, college and pro, and lined them all up in a giant ranking. The overall ranking was dominated by college teams — with UConn women’s basketball ranking No. 1 — but he also broke out pro teams specifically, which might be a cleaner comparison. That approach (unsurprisingly) yielded the NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder as the best of the year:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Second Acts: Stars That Have To Embrace New Roles” by Hardwood Paroxysm
🏈 “The Year in Bad Ideas” by Mike Tanier
🏒 “The Tampa Bay Dynasty isn’t dead yet” by Brendan Farrell
⚾ “Can MLB Teams Be Re-Made in One Off-Season?” by Mark Kolier
🏈 “Run Gap Charts Version 1.5” by Ray Carpenter
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (1/2)
🏈 CFB: Rice vs. Texas State (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Navy vs. Cincinnati (AutoZone Liberty Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Arizona vs. SMU (Trust & Will Holiday Bowl)
🏈 CFB: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (Duke’s Mayo Bowl)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Warriors
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Cavs
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Panthers (Discover NHL Winter Classic)
🏀 MBB: USC at Michigan
🏀 MBB: Michigan State at Nebraska
Saturday (1/3)
🏈 NFL: Panthers at Buccaneers
🏈 NFL: Seahawks at 49ers
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Clippers
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Heat
🏀 NBA: Sixers at Knicks
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Hurricanes
🏒 NHL: Wild at Kings
⚽ LALIGA: Espanyol vs. Barcelona
🏀 MBB: Tennessee at Arkansas
🏀 WBB: USC at UCLA
Sunday (1/4)
🏈 NFL: Packers at Vikings
🏈 NFL: Colts at Texans
🏈 NFL: Lions at Bears
🏈 NFL: Chargers at Broncos
🏈 NFL: Ravens at Steelers
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Suns
🏀 NBA: Pistons at Cavs
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Stars
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Panthers
⚽ EPL: Manchester City vs. Chelsea
🏀 WBB: Ole Miss at Texas
🏀 WBB: Baylor at Iowa State
🏀 WBB: LSU at Vanderbilt
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.