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Happy Friday, and welcome to a weekend in which the hottest team in baseball is somehow the Boston Red Sox — who were in last place as recently as July 5 but are now 31-5 over their past 36 games after beating the White Sox in an instant classic. We’ll dig into how they pulled off one of MLB’s best 36-game stretches this century, plus our Chart of the Day on a Penguins contract that looks like a serious futures bet. Elsewhere this weekend, we get a 1996 World Series rematch, the Aces get a weekend gauntlet against Minnesota and New York, NASCAR returns from its bye at Iowa and the Wyndham Championship will crown a winner. (Sadly, Wyndham Clark is not in the field.) Here’s what we’re watching overall:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (8/7)
⚾ MLB: Braves (42%) at Yankees (58%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv) - 1996 World Series rematch!
⚾ MLB: Blue Jays (33%) at Phillies (67%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv) - Zack Wheeler on the mound for PHI
⚾ MLB: Rays (48%) at Mariners (52%) - 9:45 p.m. (Apple TV+)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 37% to win World Series
🏀 WNBA: Dream (63%) at Mystics (37%) - 7:30 p.m. (ION)
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries (47%) at Wings (53%) - 9:30 p.m. (ION)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 46% to win WNBA title
⚽ NWSL: Gotham FC (45%) at San Diego Wave (26%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
⚽ MLS Championship check-in: Inter Miami 29% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL Championship check-in: Washington Spirit 31% to win
⛳ Golf: Wyndham Championship, Round 2 - 3 p.m. (Golf Channel) - Beau Hossler 11% to win
🏈 NFL: Training camps continue (Preseason Week 1 begins Aug. 13)
🏈 Championship check-in: Rams 17% to win Super Bowl
Saturday (8/8)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Yankees - 3:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Athletics at Red Sox - 4:10 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at D-Backs - 8:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Aces (35%) at Lynx (65%) - 1 p.m. (CBS) - Game of the Year candidate?
🏀 WNBA: Fever (70%) at Sky (30%) - 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
⚽ NWSL: Spirit (52%) at Courage (25%) - 6:30 p.m. (ION)
⚽ Leagues Cup: C.F. Monterrey (24%) at Inter Miami CF (58%) - 8 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⛳ Golf: Wyndham Championship, Round 3 - 1 p.m. (Golf Channel) / 3 p.m. (CBS/Paramount+)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot (43%) vs. Quillan Salkilld (57%) - 8 p.m. (Paramount+)
Sunday (8/9)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at D-Backs - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Astros at Padres - 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
🏀 WNBA: Aces (60%) at Liberty (40%) - 12:30 p.m. (ABC)
🏀 WNBA: Wings (26%) at Lynx (74%) - 3:30 p.m. (NBC)
⚽ Leagues Cup: Club América (45%) at Portland Timbers (32%) - 10 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⛳ Golf: Wyndham Championship, Final Round - 1 p.m. (Golf Channel) / 3 p.m. (CBS/Paramount+) 🚨
🏁 NASCAR: Iowa Corn 350 (Iowa Speedway) - 3:30 p.m. (USA), Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney 16% to win
🏁 IndyCar: Grand Prix of Portland (Portland International Raceway) - 3 p.m. (FOX), Alex Palou 30% to win
🏁 F1: No race. (Summer Break)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Boston baked win streaks
The Boston Red Sox can never let you get a handle on them for very long. Over the past 15 years, no team has shown more year-to-year volatility in their records than Boston, sticking true to my axiom about them from a few years ago:
“The Red Sox are always the opposite of what you and I think they will be.”
But even by that standard, the Sox have gone out of their way to defy categorization this season. After a 12-19 start in March and April that got longtime manager Alex Cora fired, Boston spent May and June simply treading water at 15-19. They were in last place on June 30 and there were few signs this team was headed anywhere good before season’s end.
But then, they started winning. And winning. And WINNING. After dropping their opening game of July, Boston rattled off 15 consecutive wins to tie a longstanding franchise record. But even so, all of that winning brought Boston’s record a few games over .500 — and it seemed to just buy them more confusion around the trade deadline, where a team that was absolutely planning to sell a few weeks earlier suddenly had to shift gears into “buy” mode. Making matters worse, their initial purchase — Nats IF Curtis Mead — broke his wrist in his Sox debut and is out until at least September.
At that point, it wasn’t hard to see the Red Sox as one of those MLB teams who get hot at exactly the wrong time, convincing themselves to go in at the deadline on a squad that, deep down, lost so much earlier for a reason. Undeterred, though, Boston continued to push its chips to the middle of the table with a huge swing for Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (who is also injured and hasn’t played since July 18). And, unbelievably, that faith has been rewarded with yet another long winning streak.
After winning this incredible back-and-forth 13-inning seesaw battle with the White Sox on Thursday night…
…Boston has now won 8 more games in a row, which means it has three distinct winning streaks of at least 7+ games since July 3 — we can split the 15-gamer into 7/8 or 8/7, plus this one — and if we go back slightly further to June 25, the Red Sox are now 31-5 in their past 36 games, just the sixth time this century that an MLB team won at least 31 times in any 36-game stretch:
Can they keep it going? Next up tonight for Boston are the Athletics, who started the 20th-century club on that list with the help of a 20-game winning streak during the “Moneyball” season. Luckily for the Red Sox, these A’s are not those A’s, and Boston has a 72% chance of winning their 32nd game in 37 tries.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Futures contract
Under the NHL’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the maximum length for a player contract is 8 years — and those deals are generally reserved for either established stars, or players who’ve shown flashes of becoming big-time producers in the future. But the Pittsburgh Penguins strained the definition of “shown flashes” on Thursday, when they signed 23-year-old restricted free agent Ville Koivunen to an 8-year, $32 million deal. Koivunen has played a grand total of 47 career NHL games, scoring 2 goals with 12 assists and a -10 plus/minus. His career Goals Above Replacement is negative (-2.1), making him the least-accomplished (and only net-negative) player in the NHL currently on an 8-year contract. Here’s hoping the Penguins know something the stats don’t.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “We Tried Tracker: Skubal De La Cruz Deadline Edition” by Davy Andrews
🎤 “Goodbye To All The Shouting” by Michael Weinreb
⚽ “Where does the power lie in football?” by Grace Robertson
🏁 “NASCAR Sets the Stage For Smoother Races” by Aaron Bearden
⚾ “Bochy Brings Losing Record to Cooperstown” by Dan Schlossberg (Note: I was surprised by this!)
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Monday (8/10)
⚾ MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
🏀 WNBA: Toronto Tempo at Atlanta Dream
⚽ Carabao Cup: Plymouth Argyle vs. Exeter City
Tuesday (8/11)
⚾ MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
🏀 WNBA: New York Liberty at Indiana Fever
⚽ Leagues Cup: Columbus Crew vs. Pumas UNAM
⚽ Leagues Cup: Tigres UANL vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
Wednesday (8/12)
⚾ MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
🏀 WNBA: Minnesota Lynx at Portland Fire
⚽ Leagues Cup: Toluca vs. FC Dallas
⚽ Leagues Cup: Seattle Sounders FC vs. Chivas Guadalajara
⚽ Leagues Cup: Inter Miami CF vs. Club León
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.