Previewing the NASCAR Cup Series’ Championship Race

Who will prevail between William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell?

After 35 events spanning over eight-and-a-half months, the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season all comes down to this: one race at Phoenix to decide a champion.

As we’ve done throughout the playoffs, let’s break down the Championship 4 drivers — William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell — with the help of our track-based driver rating system, and run through the case for (and against) each winning the title. First, here’s the overall picture of each driver’s performance under different splits according to my Adjusted Points+ index statistic:

Here’s how to catch the race:

• Sunday, November 5: Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway, 3 p.m. ET on NBC

And now, let’s go through the field in inverse order of the rankings, starting with …

William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy

It might seem odd that Byron, the best, most consistent overall driver of the entire season according to Adjusted Points+, would rank last in the projections among the Championship 4 drivers. That’s especially true given the fact that Byron also has the best recent form (over the past 10 races) and that he won at Phoenix the last time the Cup Series raced there.

So why wouldn’t Byron be a slam-dunk pick? Surprisingly, that win in mid-March was his only career Top-5 finish at the track; while Byron has run plenty strong at Phoenix relative to the entire Cup Series, his career Adjusted Points+ of 145 there lags far behind those of Larson (184) and Blaney (178), as do his rates of Top 5s (9.1%) and Top 10s (54.5%) per start. The difference becomes even more stark when we look at other shorter flat tracks similar to Phoenix, where in 22 races Byron only has 2 Top 5s (9.1%) and 5 Top 10s (22.7%).

Nobody should expect Byron to run as perplexingly slow at Phoenix as he mostly did last week at Martinsville. But basically, the question for Byron on Sunday is whether his excellent body of work this season (and one recent Phoenix win) outweighs his more mediocre overall resume at the track.

Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

As it seems is usually the case, Bell has saved some of his best performances for the tail end of the season, in the races that matter the most. Over the past 10 races, only Byron has a better average finish and Adjusted Points+ than Bell. And in addition to his penchant for clutch driving, Bell edges out Larson as the best of the Championship 4 drivers at all of the tracks deemed as similar to Phoenix, including a win at New Hampshire last July. Bell sometimes flies under the radar — he has the worst odds of any remaining title contender, per FanDuel — but it’s not hard to imagine him winning his first career championship.

Perhaps the only huge hole in Bell’s case is his relatively average performances at Phoenix over the years. In seven career races, he’s never scored a Top 5 and has an Adjusted Points+ only 15% better than the Cup Series average. (No other final-four driver is worse than Byron, at 45% above average, in Phoenix races.) His sample size for similar tracks is more than double that of his Phoenix career, so maybe we can argue Bell’s performance at the latter will move toward the former over time. But it’s hard to make an airtight case as favorite for a guy whose record isn’t better at the title track.

Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford

With wins at Martinsville and Talladega — plus four Top-6 finishes in total — over the past five races of the season, no driver is coming into the season finale on more of a hot streak than Blaney. And based on his resume at Phoenix, that form could carry over all the way to a championship. While he’s never won at the track, Blaney has four podium finishes and 10 Top-10s in 15 career races there; he also has the best average start (5.5) of any active driver at Phoenix, so don’t be surprised if he has a lot of qualifying speed and begins the race high on the grid. Phoenix tends to have fewer lead changes than the average Cup Series track, so early track position could give Blaney an edge.

Still, much as this late breakout has silenced doubters who wondered whether Blaney’s results could match his potential, there are reservations behind picking him to win it all. Even after catching fire during the playoffs, his performance across the entire season is easily the worst of any Championship 4 driver, with an Adjusted Points+ (146) and Top-5 rate (7 in 35 races, or 20%) that lags well behind those of his competitors. Where was this form all season long? And although Blaney has good results at Phoenix in particular, his numbers at other similar tracks are the weakest of any remaining contender: zero wins, 1 podium, an average finish of 17.3 and an Adjusted Points+ just 6% better than average in 31 starts at comparable sites.

Blaney may still have the perfect combination of recent speed and a specific track suited to his car — remember, teammate Joey Logano won the championship here a year ago, too — but it would be a Cinderella title based on where Blaney was heading into the playoffs.

Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy

Although Byron has him beat on wins (6 to 4), no driver in the Championship 4 has more pure speed than Larson. According to loop data from Racing-Reference, Larson has led 13.1% of all laps this season and was the fastest around the track on 8.3% of all laps, both of which comfortably led all drivers. At any given race, there was a great chance Larson was running up front and looking like a strong contender to win, regardless of whether he finished in the winner’s circle or not.

That should be the case again on Sunday. Larson has the best career track record at Phoenix of any title contender — with a win, 7 Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and an average finish of 11.7 in 18 starts there. He and Bell are also virtually tied for the best career performance at other Phoenix-like tracks, with 3 wins, 13 Top 5s, 19 Top 10s and an average finish of 10.6 in 36 starts. If there’s a nitpick about Larson, it’s that his recent form has been pretty up-and-down — since the playoffs started, he has five Top-6 finishes and four outside the Top 12, with nothing in-between — so there’s a boom-or-bust quality to his driving that could always blow up Larson’s chances. (It should also be noted that some of those poor runs came in races after Larson sealed up a spot in the next round with a previous win.)

But in light of all the data, Larson looks like the favorite to win his second career Cup Series championship — even if he’s far from a lock in what has been a wild and wide-open season for the sport this year.

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Filed under: NASCAR