Previewing the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 12

Can Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. keep their title hopes on track as the championship chase rolls on to Texas, Talladega and Charlotte?

Three of 10 playoff races are in the books and a quarter of NASCAR’s Cup Series playoff drivers are eliminated from championship contention. But that leaves 12 more drivers to sort things out as the series rolls on to the Texas Motor Speedway. Who will rise and fall from here? Let’s make some predictions, using the statistical ranking system I laid out before the playoffs.

Here’s how it works: For each driver in the playoffs, we created a three-year average of Adjusted Points+ at each playoff track — and similar tracks — with performance in more recent races, and at more similar tracks, getting more weight. Using that metric, we can rank the drivers relative to their playoff peers at all of the remaining tracks on the schedule. (For instance, Kyle Larson is projected to be the best playoff driver at Texas, based on his recent performance both there and at tracks like Kansas and Las Vegas, which share a lot of the same characteristics.)

With that out of the way, let’s move on to the playoff schedule, the driver rankings, and break down the names most — and least — likely to move on to the Round of 8.

Round of 12 schedule

• Sept. 12: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway, 3:30 p.m. ET on USA Network

• Oct. 1: YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, 2 p.m. ET on NBC

• Oct. 8: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, 2 p.m. ET on NBC

Best bets: After surviving a set of tracks that didn’t play to his strengths (and still managing to finish 11th, 7th and 20th), Kyle Busch is now headed to three venues where he is projected to finish no worse than fifth among playoff drivers. While Busch hasn’t been as strong in the second half of the season as he was early on, the fit between his driving style and these tracks means he should be poised as one of the favorites to advance this round.

Joining him is Tyler Reddick, who punched his ticket to the Round of 12 with a win at Kansas two weeks ago and seems to be in his fastest form of the season lately. Although Reddick traditionally struggles at Talladega — and thus is unlikely to be a factor in the middle of this round — he’s projected for fourth among playoff drivers at Texas (a Kansas-like intermediate track) and is No. 1 at the Charlotte Roval. He’ll have two good chances to win again in the next three races.

And of course, William Byron has a lot going for him this round. First, he has a built-in edge by banking so many bonus points that carry into the standings going forward. Also, he doesn’t have an outright terrible track in this bunch — Byron ranks no worse than seventh among playoff drivers at Texas, Talladega or Charlotte. And he is a serious threat (projected No. 3) to win at Texas in particular.

Most improved: There’s basically nowhere to go but up for Martin Truex Jr., after a miserable first round (average finish: 24.3) that saw him nearly fritter away all of his bonus points as the regular-season champion and have to grind to the very end of the Bristol night race before advancing. These second-round sites aren’t exactly Truex’s best, either — he’s famously never won at a restrictor plate track like Talladega, and he’s projected only sixth-best at Texas and the Roval — but the round reset restored Truex to a 25-point cushion over the cutline. Things might be closer than he’d like again, but MTJ can take solace in the fact that it’s unlikely for quite so much to go wrong this time around.

The same might be said for Ryan Blaney, whose results got progressively worse (ninth, then 12th, then 22nd) throughout the first round. Blaney is projected in the middle of the playoff pack (No. 7) at Texas and lower than that (10th) at the Roval, where he won in 2018 but has an average finish of 16.5 over the past three seasons if we also include similar tracks. However, Blaney is one of the best active drivers at Talladega, as well as at plate tracks overall, making him the No. 1 bet to survive the chaos there.

Don’t count on: As much as Bubba Wallace doesn’t get enough credit for actually being a solid driver — and as exciting as it was to see him advance in his first playoff appearance, which we said might happen — he’ll be up against long odds to progress any further. Bubba isn’t projected any better than No. 8 among playoff drivers at any track this round, which includes Talladega despite his win there in 2021. (That was his only career Top 10 at NASCAR’s most feared track.) Wallace is no road-course specialist either, and while he’s above average at intermediate tracks like Texas, so are most of the other drivers in the Round of 12. Combine that with his 14-point deficit to the cutline, and it’s hard to see Bubba advancing.

Want a few other names to avoid? How about Ross Chastain and Brad Keselowski — both of whom are currently below the cutline in the standings, and are projected this round as 10th- and 11th-best among playoff drivers, respectively, according to our system. Keselowski was consistent in Round 1, compiling three Top 10s, but he profiles as one of the worst playoff drivers at both Texas (No. 11) and the Charlotte Roval (No. 12). He might need a strong finish at Talladega to have a shot at advancing. And who knows what Chastain will do from week-to-week in a season that has been all over the place? He finished fifth, 13th and 23rd in the three playoff races so far, and his projected rankings this round range from No. 5 among the 12 playoff drivers at Talladega to No. 11 at the Roval.

The big picture: The championship landscape is as wide-open as ever, and we could be due for at least one surprising name to be on the outside after the next three races. For instance, it’s easy to assume that Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Truex will be among the drivers that make it past the Round of 12 and continue their title bids. But that’s not necessarily guaranteed: On pure projected performance at these tracks, that trio ranks seventh, eighth and ninth among playoff drivers this round, respectively. While Truex and Hamlin benefit from 20+ point cushions over the cutline, which help — and Larson checks in around half that, while also ranking as the single most likely winner at Texas — their spots in the Round of 8 shouldn’t be taken for granted.

And that could matter a lot for the overall state of the championship. If they all advance, Larson, Hamlin and Truex would join Byron as the four best projected drivers in the Round of 8, in addition to being three of the top four picks to win the finale at Phoenix. That would potentially set up an abnormally chalky end to the Cup Series season, in a sport where the best season-long driver usually doesn’t win the title. But this round of the playoffs is also where that seemingly smooth journey could come hurtling off the track and into a chaotic tailspin.

With the exceptions of Busch and Byron, each of the top playoff drivers looks strong in at least one track in the next three, and also faces at least one track that might be a struggle. That means every missed opportunity, every mistake, every late pass and every crash takes on greater significance, as the margin between advancing and elimination gets narrower than ever.

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