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Greetings on this Tuesday in sports! And congrats to South Carolina and Texas, which won last night to join UConn and UCLA in forming a women’s Final Four of historic proportions. We’ll have more on this all top-seeded Final Four below, plus a note on a very strangely timed hockey coaching swap. But in the meantime, we’re also on the watch for baseball — may your favorite team go 5-for-5 on the new ABS challenges like the Yankees did on Monday — and the closing stages of the NBA and NHL seasons as we look ahead to what’s happening on the sports docket today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
MLB:
⚾ Red Sox (42%) at Astros (58%)* - 8:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (51%) at Mariners (49%) - 9:40 p.m. (TBS)
⚾ Guardians (30%) at Dodgers (70%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
NBA:
🏀 Knicks (50%) at Rockets (50%) - 8 p.m. (Peacock) (A true toss-up!)
🏀 Mavericks (52%) at Bucks (48%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Cavaliers (44%) at Lakers (56%) - 10:30 p.m.
NHL:
🏒 Stars (54%) at Bruins (46%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Devils (54%) at Rangers (46%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Hurricanes (55%) at Blue Jackets (45%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Soccer:
⚽ International Friendly: US (20%) vs. Portugal (61%) - 7 p.m. (TNT)
⚽ International Friendly: Brazil (55%) vs. Croatia (24%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN Deportes)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
No surprises
In a year where the rest of the women’s field — outside of undefeated No. 1 Connecticut — was looking as strong as it had ever been, there was a real question about how that would manifest itself in the NCAA tournament. Would we get more upsets? Or would the particular strength of the top handful of teams simply lead to an exercise in dominance? We got our answer, and it turns out dominance was indeed the order of the day.
As mentioned above, a Final Four of UConn, Texas, South Carolina, and UCLA represents pure chalk: a quartet of No. 1 seeds sweeping the regions along the road to the national semifinals. And despite the women’s tournament’s reputation for imbalance between the top teams and everybody else in general, this type of sweep is still very rare. Including 2026, it’s happened only five times in history — and previously not since 2018:
It’s also the same exact Final Four that we had a year ago, marking just the second time in history that the women’s tourney produced the same precise combination of last teams standing in back-to-back years (joining 1995 and 1996, when UConn, Tennessee, Stanford, and Georgia all convened at the semifinals both seasons).
Want more chalky goodness? By Sports-Reference’s Simple Rating System, this is only the second time since 2010 (joining 2012) that the nation’s four highest-rated teams were also the Final Four — and the average SRS rating across UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, and Texas (49.2) is by far the highest for any women’s Final Four in that span:
So at the expense of upsets, close games, and unexpected outcomes earlier in the tournament, we do get repaid with probably the most stacked Final Four in the history of the women’s tourney. But will that lead to great basketball now? Well, Texas-UCLA is projected to be fairly close, with the Longhorns holding a 57% edge in the prediction markets. But Connecticut remains a sizable favorite, both to beat South Carolina (75%) and to eventually win the title game (62%):
In keeping with the themes of this season, the rest of the country can get better and even forge their own dominant paths to the semifinals. But if UConn keeps improving, too, we may just end up in the same place as before, with Geno Auriemma and the Huskies cutting down the nets when it’s all said and done.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Weird timing, but OK
Normally, NHL teams don’t fire their coaches as the calendar is about to flip to April. It’s late enough in the season that playoff-bound teams usually roll with what they’ve got — bringing in a new coach would be a massive source of upheaval — and non-playoff squads will wait until the offseason to make a change. But the Vegas Golden Knights don’t tend to follow convention, which means they fired Stanley Cup-winning coach Bruce Cassidy on Sunday in favor of firebrand John Tortorella with just weeks to go in the regular season. The logic of the move was that Vegas is a win-now team mired in a slump, in need of a new voice, and they won Tort’s debut on Monday night to bring their playoff odds to 90%. But that doesn’t make the timing of the move any less unprecedented relative to recent years:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Improving the NBA’s Anti-Tanking Proposals” by TJ Highley
🏀 “The 2026 NBA ‘Carter Bryant’ Rookie All-Stars” by Nathan Grubel
🏈 “The Mendoza Line: Is Fernando Mendoza A Good Prospect? What does that even mean?” by StartKyleOrton
⚽ “Inside Wrexham’s Finances: How Ryan Reynolds And Rob McElhenney Built a $450 Million Football Club” by Joe Pompliano
⚾🎲 “How Historical Sports Simulations Can Explain the Universe” by SGJ Jamie
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (4/1)
⚾ MLB: Red Sox vs. Astros
🏀 NBA: Spurs vs. Warriors
🏒 NHL: Ducks vs. Sharks
⚽ Soccer: US vs. Portugal
Thursday (4/2)
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Lakers at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Panthers
⚽ Soccer: Real Madrid at Barcelona (Women’s Champions League)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
Friday (4/3)
🏀 Women’s Final Four: UConn vs. South Carolina
🏀 Women’s Final Four: Texas vs. UCLA
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Bucks
🏒 NHL: Flyers at Islanders
⚽ Ligue 1: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Toulouse
⚽ NWSL: Boston vs. San Diego
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.