The NBA Draft Matters More Than It Used To
Stockpiling (and spending) picks is more correlated with winning in the 2020s than at any other time in recent league history.
The NBA draft is upon us once again, which means it’s time to saddle a bunch of talented and athletic teenagers with wild rumors, career-defining speculation and the future hopes of multi-billion dollar businesses.
This year’s draft feels like it’s coming with more intrigue than most. While there’s little uncertainty around the presumptive Top 2 of Duke F Cooper Flagg at No. 1 (which belongs to the Dallas Mavericks) and Rutgers G Dylan Harper at No. 2 (San Antonio Spurs), oddsmakers are increasingly split on who will get the call next — especially after Harper’s teammate, wing Ace Bailey, has seen his stock fall in the wake of a shaky combine and a lack of pre-draft workouts. Surely additional risers, fallers and mystery prospects will shake things up even more before tonight’s first round is through.
But beyond the who-goes-where drama, draft night is fundamentally about teams building up their portfolios of long-term value — even if they might inexplicably end up dealing that value away for sub-market returns later on. And while there was a time not too long ago when other factors (free agency, trades, veteran star-chasing, etc.) outweighed the pure accumulation of draft capital when building contending teams, the pendulum has swung in the direction of draft day in recent years.
