NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: What to Watch For
Using each driver’s history at each track type, we make our picks for who will rise and fall throughout the championship chase.
With the 2023 regular season coming to a close and the playoff field finally set — sorry, Chase Elliott — the NASCAR Cup Series now turns its attention to the 10-week dash to the championship. The playoffs’ format can be confusing (what else is new for NASCAR?), but the simple explanation is that 16 drivers will be cut down to 12 after three races, then to eight after three more races, and finally down to the Championship 4 after three more races, setting up a do-or-die final race at Phoenix for the title. Win in each round, and you automatically move on; otherwise, you advance based on the points standings, which have been partially reset before the playoffs.
Now that we have all of that out of the way, who are the drivers to watch at each stage? To help answer that question, I turned to my Adjusted Points+ metric, which credits drivers with how they finish races relative to the field average, and I tracked how well each playoff driver has tended to do at each playoff track since 2021. But I also included a few twists: More recent performances are weighted more heavily, and for each track I also considered drivers’ performances at similar tracks, which allows us to draw from a larger sample.
After crunching all of those numbers, I was able to rank each playoff driver at each remaining track, from No. 1 to No. 16:
Let’s run through the key takeaways from the rankings:
Round of 16
Best bets: It’s no surprise that No. 1 seed William Byron is among the favorites to advance deep into the playoffs, but he should be an especially good pick in the first round — Darlington, Kansas and Bristol all project to be among his best tracks. The same can be said for Kyle Larson and for Denny Hamlin, who is seeking to shed his “best driver to never win a championship” tag. And watch out for 15th-seeded Kevin Harvick in his extended retirement tour. With almost all of his top tracks frontloaded in this round, Harvick is poised to leapfrog some rivals as he looks ahead to the Round of 8.
Don’t count on: Either Michael McDowell or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Yes, McDowell has been hot of late, winning at the Indy road course and leading 17 laps at Watkins Glen before a pit miscue and electrical problems soured his day. But he has zero Top 5s and only two Top 10s in 12 combined tries at Darlington, Kansas and Bristol since 2021; Kansas’ track type (intermediate ovals) has been particularly bad for him recently. Stenhouse had the opposite season trajectory of McDowell — hot early, winning at Daytona, but fading late — and these tracks do not have him set up for a playoff turnaround. While he’s done well at Bristol with dirt, Stenhouse hasn’t finished better than 20th on regular, paved Bristol since spring 2018.
Upset watch: Two-time champ Kyle Busch has enjoyed a great bounceback season in his debut with Richard Childress Racing this year, but the first three tracks of the playoffs will test this No. 5 seed. Aside from a win at Kansas in 2021, Busch has just three total Top 10s at those tracks in 12 races over the past three seasons. Starting this round with a 12-point cushion over the cutline helps, but don’t be shocked if Busch drops in the standings from there.
Sleeper search: On the flip side, Bubba Wallace could surprise a lot of people during his first trip to the Cup Series playoffs. Although he’ll need to outdrive his record at short tracks when the series rolls into Bristol, the first two races of the round — at Darlington and especially Kansas — play right into Wallace’s strengths as a driver. He has a win, three Top 5s and five Top 10s in 10 starts at those tracks since 2021.
Round of 12
Best bets: If Busch doesn’t fall back too far, he will be extremely dangerous in the second round. Busch has a great recent record at both Talladega (where he won in April) and low-tire-wear ovals similar to Texas (nine Top 5s and 14 Top 10s since 2021), and he has finished no worse than fourth at the Charlotte Roval since 2020. Byron also figures to be propelled by a strong showing at Texas, even if Talladega and the Roval aren’t his strongest tracks. And here are a couple of lower seeds to watch if they survive to this round: No. 10 Tyler Reddick, who excels at road courses, and No. 12 Ryan Blaney, who is a superspeedway savant.
Don’t count on: Sorry, Stenhouse again. Despite his Daytona victory, he only has an average finish of 21.9 at superspeedways since 2021 — and Talladega figures to be his best track of this bunch. The No. 14 seed is going to have a lot of trouble advancing past this phase of the playoffs, if he makes it here at all. Among the better bets to get this far, Brad Keselowski isn’t a lock to move on from here, either. RFK Racing had a great late-season showing between Keselowski and particularly Chris Buescher, but Brad K. has been a mixed bag on intermediates like Texas and mediocre on road courses recently. And keep an eye on both Harvick and Joey Logano at this stage — both face their worst set of tracks during the Round of 12, so elimination is possible, but both would be strong championship threats if they do survive.
Upset watch: Though he’s the betting market’s overall favorite to win the title, the Round of 12 is where Martin Truex Jr. will have to be careful. His performance on intermediate tracks is not to be questioned, but Talladega is Truex’s weakest track (among those he’s run at least three races on since 2021) and he’s been surprisingly hit-or-miss at the Roval over the years for one of the winningest road-course regulars in NASCAR history.
Round of 8
Best bets: Assuming he gets here — and he shouldn’t have too much trouble, given how the tracks line up — Larson could tear up the Round of 8. Since 2021, he has three total wins and an average finish of 8.0 at Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville combined. Larson in the third round is the best fit between a driver and a set of tracks in the entire playoffs. After him, Hamlin and Byron are also good matches for these tracks, and the defending champ, Logano, will be particularly tough to knock out at Martinsville (where his average finish is 5.2 since 2021) if he’s in the mix before the final cut.
Don’t count on: The No. 4 seed, Buescher. This stage of the playoffs might be where RFK’s impressive run comes to an end, as Buescher’s weakest tracks from the past few seasons are almost entirely concentrated in the Round of 8. In 12 starts, Buescher has just one Top 10 finish at Las Vegas, Homestead or Martinsville since 2021. Additionally, Christopher Bell may find it difficult to make a return trip to the Championship 4. While he’s a threat on the unique layout of Martinsville — where he won his way in a year ago — Bell isn’t as good at intermediate tracks as his likely peers at this stage.
The wild cards: If Busch can avoid disaster in Round 1 and Ross Chastain can do the same in Round 2 — Chastain had better hope things don’t come down to the Roval, where he has a career average finish of 26.5 — both have a puncher’s chance of making the final four. We all know what Chastain did at Martinsville last year, but he’s just as good on mile-and-a-halfers like Las Vegas and Homestead. Busch can say the same, with two wins, 10 Top 5s and 16 Top 10s in 27 tries at tracks analogous to either Las Vegas or Homestead since 2021.
Championship 4
Best bets: The most Phoenix-suited drivers in the playoff field are Logano (who won last year’s finale there to clinch the title) and Harvick (who has 18 Top 10s in 22 races at Phoenix-like tracks since 2021). And if they can survive to this point, either would be a tough out. But since neither is on especially solid ground in that regard, Larson looks like the better pick here — he has dominated shorter flat tracks like Phoenix over the past few seasons, with three wins, 10 Top 5s and 15 Top 10s in 22 races. Otherwise, Truex (four wins, 10 Top 5s, 13 Top 10s) and Hamlin (one win, 10 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s) have fairly similar recent resumes at Phoenix and its comparable tracks.
Upset watch: In the best season of his career, Byron led all drivers in wins and asserted himself as the headliner on a star-studded Hendrick Motorsports team. And the first three rounds of the playoffs are set up as well for him as for anyone, in terms of the tracks involved. But when it comes to the finale at Phoenix, it’s a track type that Byron hasn’t been quite as dominant on as his rivals. Yes, Byron won there in March after passing Larson late, but overall he has fewer Top 5s and Top 10s than Larson, Truex or Hamlin at Phoenix-like tracks since 2021. Byron isn’t bad there by any means, but after a string of very favorable chances to advance, the No. 1 seed in the playoffs will potentially face his toughest challenge in the season finale.
Filed under: NASCAR