Is Max Verstappen Inevitable Again?

Formula 1 is all about dynasties, and Red Bull's star is a big favorite to keep building his.

On the eve of the 2023 Formula 1 season, which opens this weekend in Bahrain, the betting odds see little reason to doubt two-time defending World Champion Max Verstappen. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Verstappen as better than even money to win the title; after removing the vig, he still has a 52.5% implied probability, while no other driver is even at 14%. More likely than not, that means a Red Bull-clad Dutch driver will be popping celebratory champagne yet again when the championship is awarded at year’s end.

This shouldn’t be a surprise, as Formula 1 is a sport of dynasties. Whether due to the emergence of certain generational driving talents, or — just as likely — the way certain teams know how to take full advantage of the sport’s engine and aero rules in certain eras, F1 lends itself to multi-year runs of dominance like the one Verstappen is currently on. That’s been especially true in recent decades, with 21 of the past 25 championships going to a driver who was in the midst of a streak of two or more consecutive titles.

Since 1998, a quarter-century ago, it would be a lot easier to simply list the seasons that were won by drivers not on a multi-year winning streak:

• 2007: Kimi Raikkonen

• 2008: Lewis Hamilton

• 2009: Jenson Button

• 2016: Nico Rosberg

Yes, that’s it — and even Hamilton’s entry might deserve an asterisk, as he later went on to win six titles in seven years (including a run of four straight) during the 2010s.

Now, to be fair, earlier eras of F1 were less dominated by the same names year-in and year-out. Incredibly, until Alain Prost won back-to-back crowns in 1985 and 1986, no driver had won consecutive titles since Jack Brabham in 1959 and 1960. My guess is that this is because F1 success was less car-dependent in earlier eras, meaning the same team couldn’t just dominate every single year on the basis of the prevailing technical regulations.

However, dominant drivers still mattered: There were plenty of two-in-three-years runs during that span, won by such legends as Jimmy Clark, Sir Jackie Stewart, Emerson Fittipaldi, Niki Lauda and Nelson Piquet. Parity back then just meant another guy would at least get a shot every few years. Nowadays, when somebody gets on a multi-year roll, it feels like you can just sit back and watch them lock everyone else out of the championship for a half-decade.

Which brings us back to the current Verstappen Era. Once a driver wins back-to-back titles, how often do they extend it further, historically speaking?

The history of F1’s 13 total multi-year championship streaks tells a few interesting stories. For one thing, nearly 70% of streaks like the one Verstappen is currently on simply end as back-to-back runs. And while that means about 30% of those streaks reached the three-straight status Verstappen is gunning for in 2023, none of them actually ended on three — 23% went for four straight and 8% went five in a row. (As a teenager of the early 2000s, I can recall rooting for someone, anyone to beat Michael Schumacher during that 5-year stretch — although now I can appreciate the historical significance of what he did then.) It seems to be the nature of F1 to either produce quick mini-dynasties or protracted half-decade runs of overwhelming dominance… and nothing in-between.

It certainly feels like Verstappen will be an example of the latter, as those lopsided championship odds can attest. And if he does make it to three in a row this year, history tells us that he probably won’t stop there in 2024 and beyond.

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Filed under: Formula 1