In Formula 1, No Dynasty Lasts Forever
No matter how invincible an F1 team seems, the torch always gets passed — and McLaren has fully taken it from Red Bull this season. But how long will that last?
With Formula 1 on its summer break starting this week, now is as good a time as any to step back and take stock of the 2025 season to date. And what a season it has been so far, in terms of the championship battle: Just 9 points separate McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris atop the standings, and the pair have traded off wins in the weeks leading up to the break — part of the two young stars’ season-long struggle to claim the mantle of World Champion as their own.
According to the Polymarket futures, things are still hanging in the balance between Piastri (59 percent) and Norris (38 percent) — closer than things ever were between Max Verstappen and Norris last season, even as the former slumped in the middle of the schedule. Here’s a breakdown of the Polymarket implied odds for each driver to finish in each slot Nos. 1-5 in the final standings:
One thing that isn’t likely to be up for grabs, however, is the Constructors' Championship — which, between the efforts of Oscar and Lando, has a 97 percent chance of going to McLaren for the second straight season:
What’s more, Red Bull — which had finished a shock third in the standings last year, after lopsided championship wins in 2022 and 2023 — is most likely to finish this tumultuous season in fourth place, tied for its lowest finish since 2008. And the team’s No. 1 driver, Verstappen, is nearly certain to see his streak of consecutive drivers’ championships end at four with either Piastri or Norris winning the first title of their careers instead.
All of this was tough to envision just a few years ago, when Verstappen and Red Bull were so comically dominant that it threatened to make a mockery of the sport. But even then, we also should have known from history that F1 dynasties are made to rise and, ultimately, fall.
With a nudge from McLaren and its impressive rebirth under Zak Brown’s leadership, Red Bull has fallen off its perch the same way Mercedes did before them — and the same way Renault, and Ferrari, and McLaren and Williams did before that. With big changes looming in the sport, it’s worth wondering how long McLaren can stay here as well.
