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Welcome to Wednesday, where we’re coming off a little stormy weather and a lot of chaos in baseball ahead of the trade deadline. We’ll get into how the postseason-bubble logjam is complicated by the imbalanced strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the mix, plus a note on one of the most dominant tennis pairings (résumé-wise) ever assembled. And we’ll also be watching for any news coming out of NFL training camps after some bombshells involving Kyle Shanahan and Micah Parsons already dropped this week. With that in mind, here’s what else we have our eye on today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Braves at Mets doubleheader - 1:10 p.m. and 7:10 p.m. (SNY / MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (58%) at White Sox (42%)* - 7:40 p.m. (MLB Network / YES / MLB.tv) - Cam Schlittler start for NYY
⚾ Cubs (53%) at Cardinals (47%) - 7:45 p.m. (Marquee / MLB.tv)
⚾ Mariners (42%) at Dodgers (58%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Trade deadline in 5️⃣ days
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 36% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Dream (51%) at Wings (49%) - 8:00 p.m. (Peachtree Sports / WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Valkyries (65%) at Mercury (35%) - 10:00 p.m. (USA Network / WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 42% to win WNBA title
Soccer:
⚽ MLS All-Star Game: MLS All-Stars (45%) vs. Liga MX All-Stars (55%) - 8:00 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⚽ UEFA Champions League Qualifying: Lech Poznań (96%) vs. AGF Aarhus (4%) - 1:00 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ UEFA Champions League Qualifying: Red Star Belgrade (99%) vs. Larne (1%) - 2:00 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ MLS Championship check-in: Inter Miami 29% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL Championship check-in: Washington Spirit 29% to win
Basketball:
🏀 The Basketball Tournament (TBT) Alumni Championship, JHX Hoops (41%) at La Familia (59%) - 7 p.m. (FS1)
Football:
🏈 NFL training camps open (veterans report)
🏈 Big Ten Media Days - Day 2 (Big Ten Network)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
It’s getting weird
In yesterday’s newsletter, we noted that this was an unusually crowded MLB playoff landscape even by the standards of the current expanded-postseason era, with roughly 80% of all teams sitting within 5 games of a playoff spot with mere days to go before the trade deadline. Well, it’s not like things got any less confusing on Tuesday.
With Tarik Skubal trade rumors heating up, the Tigers beat the Orioles by two touchdowns, 14-0, which sent their playoff odds into the mid-20% range. The Red Sox dealt for hitter Curtis Mead, who then broke his wrist almost immediately. The Phillies got shut out by Miami for their sixth loss in seven games, while the Mariners beat the Dodgers to bring their World Series odds into surprisingly strong company in the prediction markets:
(That same market now has 17 teams between 10% and 80% playoff odds, and 12 between 20% and 70%.)
And the Washington Nationals continue to emerge as one of the weirdest teams on a weird postseason bubble, beating another bubble team (the Blue Jays) 8-6 to add to both their league-best offense and near-league-worst defense at the same time. Judging their runs scored and allowed per game relative to average (and adjusting for park effects), Washington has the most imbalanced team in MLB this season — their offense is 1.73 runs per game better than their defense — and the sixth-most imbalanced team to be within 1 game of a playoff spot on July 29 since 1995.
But while they’re more historically notable than other 2026 squads in that regard, the Nats are not alone in their extreme imbalance on one side of the ball or the other. Among the 24 teams sitting within at least 5½ games of a playoff spot, 13 have at least a half-run per game of imbalance between their offense and defense, eight are at least three-quarters of a run imbalance and four are more than a run per game imbalanced between their strong and weak sides of the ball:
This adds yet another strange dimension to the deals that might get swung at the deadline, since the teams who do the buying will probably be looking to shore up their weak links ahead of the playoff push and the October sprint. In other words, this upcoming trade deadline may come down to which half-built contenders can do the best job of making themselves whole.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Not-so-mixed results
The US Open wanted star power in its reworked mixed doubles event —and it certainly seems to have gotten its wish. Aryna Sabalenka and Novak Djokovic announced this week they’d be pairing up as a tennis superteam, headlining the early entry list with their 28 combined Grand Slam singles titles (!). It’s a total that dwarfs every other combo in the field: Last year’s runners-up, Iga Swiatek and Casper Ruud, have six, for instance, while Naomi Osaka and Kei Nishikori have four. Everybody else has two or fewer, leaving the rest of the draw staring up at the most unfair partner assignment in Queens.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Baseball Closers Are on the Verge of Extinction” by Jared Diamond
⚾ “The Phillies’s Backs are To the Wall” by Matt Veasey
🏀🎧 “Can the Sixers’ New Superteam Work?” by Wharton Moneyball
🏀 “For His Final Act, LeBron Chose Ambition Over Story” by Michael Weinreb
🏀 “What if MJ picked his team in 2001?” by Jack M Silverstein
✏️ “A lack of journalism training is not a badge of honor” by Brian Moritz
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (7/30)
⚾ MLB: Nationals at Braves
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Aces
⚽ Club Friendly: Sunderland vs. Leeds United
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: Grêmio vs. Club Bolívar
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: O’Higgins vs. Boca Juniors
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic (Detroit Golf Club - Detroit, MI) - Round 1
Friday (7/31)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Fire
⚽ Soccer: NYCFC at Toronto FC
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic - Round 2
Saturday (8/1)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Mercury
⚽ MLS: Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic - Round 3
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.