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Happy Wednesday, as we wonder what today can do for an encore after a truly wild day (and night) in sports on Tuesday. In addition to the usual conference tournament action in college hoops — the pre-NCAA tourney craziness (just ask Pitt and Stanford) that always serves as a prelude to March Madness — we also saw Italy hang on to upset Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, a revoked trade in the NFL, and oh by the way, an NBA player scored EIGHTY-THREE points in a game. We’ll have more on both of the latter two items below, but here’s what we’re watching today, when we can only guess what might be coming next:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
WBC:
⚾ Italy (29%) vs. Mexico (71%)* - 7 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ Dominican Republic (69%) vs. Venezuela (31%) - 8 p.m. (Tubi)
NBA:
🏀 Cavs (60%) at Magic (40%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Rockets (31%) at Nuggets (69%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 T-Wolves (46%) at Clippers (54%) - 10:30 p.m.
NHL:
🏒 Capitals (54%) at Flyers (46%) - 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Canadiens (37%) at Senators (63%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
College Hoops:
🏀 SMU (28%) vs. Louisville (72%) - 2:30 p.m. (ESPN), ACC Tournament second round
🏀 Men’s conference tournaments: Big Sky, Patriot League, Southland championships; ACC, Big 12, Big Ten second rounds; SEC, Big East first rounds
🏀 Women’s conference tournaments: Big Sky championship; Southland semifinals; MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC quarterfinals
Soccer:
⚽ Champions League: Real Madrid (26%) vs. Manchester City (50%) - 4 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: PSG (46%) vs. Chelsea (30%) - 4 p.m. (Paramount+)
Tennis:
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Men’s: Carlos Alcaraz 54% to win; Women’s: Aryna Sabalenka 44% to win
Paralympics:
🏅 Event finals in Para cross-country skiing (6x) and wheelchair curling
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Bam goes boom
Oftentimes, the most spectacular things in sports are also the most unexpected.
But there are different types of unexpected. Some outcomes are improbable, yet still comfortably exist within the framework of how we already understand the game. Think of a team winning after its win probability dipped below 1%, or a late-season collapse that defies explanation. In each of those cases, there would have been a prediction market anticipating the event ahead of time, with traders pricing the comeback or collapse according to what they believed the odds of each outcome to be.
Then there are the events so improbable that we don’t even know to price them in the first place — a category that included Miami Heat forward Bam Adebayo’s 83-point outburst on Tuesday night, which surpassed the late Kobe Bryant for the second-most points scored in a game in NBA history (trailing only Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game from 1962).
If you had searched for Adebayo on a site like Kalshi or Polymarket on Tuesday afternoon, it would have returned markets like Defensive Player of the Year odds and his chances to win Clutch Player of the Year. There was not, however, a contract for whether Adebayo would eclipse 80 points against the Wizards later that night. In fact, there wasn’t even a “Will any player score 70-plus tonight?” market at all, because it would have basically traded at zero percent — it’s something that’s happened 16 times in the 80-year history of the NBA (once every five years on average), so the odds of it occurring on any specific night of the season are infinitesimally low.
Again, though, the world is often shaped by events that are so far beyond the realm of expected outcomes that the markets don’t bother pricing them in the first place. That’s the premise behind Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “The Black Swan,” which explores the outsized impact of rare, unpredictable events that exist in the extreme long tails of probability distributions. And in the NBA, Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points is a “Black Swan” event.
Ahead of the game, betting outlets set his over/under for scoring at around 25 points — higher than usual, because he was facing a horrible, injury-riddled Wizards frontcourt, but nothing particularly eyebrow-raising. (Most pregame tip-givers actually highlighted Adebayo’s rebounding as a value play, not his scoring.) But Adebayo had 31 points through the first quarter, 43 at halftime, 62 by the start of the fourth, and kept pouring on 21 (!) in the final frame to arrive at the 83-point mark.
Not everyone is happy about this. At the Laker game last night, the PA announcer mournfully intoned that Adebayo’s accomplishment was a “rather melancholy footnote in NBA history,” to a chorus of boos from a home crowd incensed that Bryant was bumped a spot down on the scoring list. Media members have joined in, too, saying Adebayo should have (arbitrarily) stopped at matching Bryant’s 81, or calling the performance an “affront to the game” because he scored 36 of the 83 from the free-throw line.
It is true that Adebayo had double the made free throws in his game as Bryant had in his. (Though it’s worth noting that Chamberlain’s 28 free throws were relatively close to Adebayo’s 36.) But Damian Lillard once scored 39 of his 71 points in a game via the 3-pointer, a shot that earlier players didn’t even have access to. Every era has its own ways of scoring. And if the Wizards didn’t want to give up 83 points, they should have stopped fouling Adebayo and played some defense, in this humble blogger’s opinion.
In any event, performances like this are a reminder that the most impressive moments in sports are the ones that we not only don’t see coming, but don’t even realize are possible in the first place… until they happen.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Maxx-imum chaos
As we alluded to earlier, part of the unexpected news on Tuesday night was a report that the Baltimore Ravens canceled their blockbuster trade for Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby after medical concerns arose during his physical regarding his surgically repaired knee. The Ravens then promptly turned around and signed free agent Trey Hendrickson to fill a similar defensive role, preserving their status as the markets’ presumptive AFC favorite for next season. But what’s next for Crosby after the trade was scuttled? Here’s what the prediction markets think his next destination will be, for all outcomes with a greater than 1% implied probability:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Stop Caveating Greatness” by Mike Shearer
🏈 “2026 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams” by Kevin Cole
⚽ “North London Forever: Arsenal are on the cusp of history” by Austin Cornilles
🏀 “The ‘weak bubble’ panic of 2026” by John Gasaway
⚾ “Who Has the Best Pitching Development + Acquisition?” by Lance Brozdowski
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (3/12)
🏀 NBA: Sixers at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Stars
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, Big West, MAC, WAC, CUSA, SWAC, MEAC quarterfinals; Big Ten third round; SEC second round
🏀 WBB: Southland championship; Northeast, Patriot League semifinals; American, Big West, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC quarterfinals; CAA second round; Missouri Valley first round
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
Friday (3/13)
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: South Korea vs. Pool D winner
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: Pool A runner-up vs. Pool B winner
🏀 NBA: Cavs at Mavs
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Warriors
🏒 NHL: Kings at Islanders
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Blues
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, American, Atlantic 10, MAC, WAC, CUSA, SWAC, MEAC semifinals; Big Ten, SEC, Big West quarterfinals
🏀 WBB: America East championship; American, Big West, MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC, WAC semifinals; CAA, Missouri Valley, Ivy League quarterfinals
⚽ NWSL: Washington Spirit vs. Portland Thorns FC
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
🎾 Tennis: BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Women’s semifinals
Saturday (3/14)
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: Pool B runner-up vs. Pool A winner
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: Pool D runner-up vs. Japan
🏀 NBA: Hornets at Spurs
🏀 NBA: Wizards at Celtics
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Lakers
🏀 NBA: Kings at Clippers
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Capitals
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Sabres
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, MAC, WAC, CUSA, MEAC championships; American, Atlantic 10, SEC, Big Ten, SWAC semifinals; Big West quarterfinals
🏀 WBB: American, Big West, MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC, WAC, Ivy League championships; CAA, Missouri Valley semifinals
⚽ EPL: Arsenal vs. Everton
⚽ EPL: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
⚽ EPL: West Ham United vs. Manchester City
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
🎾 Tennis: BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Men’s semifinals
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.