Defending WBC Champs (U.S.) Or Elo No. 1 (Japan) — Who Ya Got?

Setting the stage for the final chapter of an exciting World Baseball Classic.

How can things get any better than Monday night’s World Baseball Classic semifinal between Japan and Mexico? It’s tough to say, given the instant-classic nature of the back-and-forth contest just staged under Game 7-style conditions. Mounting two separate multi-run comebacks, Japan never stopped fighting, and they eventually walked off the 6-5 victory in the bottom of the ninth.

Now the United States awaits in Tuesday’s championship game. It’s not exactly a No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup, at least not according to the WBC Elo ratings — Japan ranks first by a comfortable margin, with the U.S. sitting in fourth behind Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic — but it ought to be a fitting end to what has been an exciting tournament so far.

Japan is no stranger to the WBC’s biggest stage. They’ve won the championship twice — more than any other nation — and finished on the podium in every edition of the tournament, 2023 included. Their current Elo of 1594 is the highest ever reached by a team at the WBC, and they could become the first team ever to achieve a rating of 1600. (For comparison’s sake, the highest rating achieved by a team other than Japan is 1571, by Puerto Rico before the 2017 final.)

But despite all that, Elo ratings actually favor the U.S. in this year’s final (with a 53% win probability), since the Americans are beneficiaries of the WBC’s rather sizable home-field advantage effect. And that matches the betting markets as well; FanDuel Sportsbook opened the U.S. at -160, which translates to a 55% chance of winning after adjusting for the take.

A win for Team USA would allow them to match Japan as the only multi-time champ, while a win for Japan would further solidify the Samurai Warriors as the greatest team (whether single-tournament or all-time) in WBC history. And if the title game matches the thrills from some of these recent WBC contests, baseball fans will be winners too, no matter where in the world they’re watching from.