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Happy Monday, and welcome to Cup Week — on multiple different levels. The Stanley Cup Final is between games right now, catching its breath after arguably the craziest three-game start in series history, while the World Cup is looming large ahead of its grand start on Thursday. Looping in other trophies, Mirra Andreeva and Alexander Zverev each won their first Grand Slams at the French Open, the Belmont Stakes just gave us a Triple Crown “what if?” and the NBA Finals now move to Madison Square Garden with the Knicks two wins from their first title in 53 years. Add in the College World Series starting Friday, and it’s a big week for championship hopes and dreams. Here’s what we’re watching today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Spurs (45%) at Knicks (55%),* Game 3 (NYK leads 2-0) - 8:30 p.m. (ABC) - NYK 77% to win series
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 No games
MLB:
⚾ Mariners (55%) at Orioles (45%) - 6:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (45%) at Guardians (55%) - 6:40 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ Brewers (60%) at Athletics (40%) - 10:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Liberty (88%) at Sun (12%) - 7 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Fever (66%) at Mystics (34%) - 7 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 Storm (10%) at Aces (90%) - 10 p.m. (USA Network)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 25% to win WNBA title
Soccer:
⚽ International Friendly: Côte d’Ivoire vs. Philadelphia Union II - 7 p.m. (Subaru Park)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 19% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Knicks stand on the edge of (expensive) history
After winning Games 1 and 2 of the NBA Finals in San Antonio last week, the New York Knicks will return to Madison Square Garden for a pair of games tonight and Wednesday, staring at the very real possibility of their first championship since 1973.
The all-time record for teams leading 2-0 in NBA playoff series is 331-28, which works out to a 92.2% success rate. Of course, that includes a bunch of more lopsided matchups from earlier rounds in the playoffs — restrict the sample to the NBA Finals specifically, and the record becomes 32-5, or an 86.5% conversion rate. That’s not quite as ironclad, though still something I think Knicks fans would take!
The really notable factor there is that the vast majority of those 37 series saw the team up 2-0 do so with the help of home-court advantage. The Knicks are only the third team in NBA Finals history to win both of the series’ opening two games on the road (and the fourth to do it with at least one of those two games being on the road — I’ll explain). The other three?
1995 Houston Rockets: Went up 2-0 at Orlando Magic, and ended up sweeping the series 4-0.
1993 Chicago Bulls: Went up 2-0 at Phoenix Suns, then won only one of the next three games in Chicago (the finals had a 2-3-2 format then) before clinching on the road in Game 6.
1975 Golden State Warriors: In a weird footnote of NBA history, went up 2-0 with one game on the road and one at home — because of two separate scheduling conflicts (one involving the Ice Follies). The Warriors went on to sweep, winning Game 3 at home and Game 4 on the road.
If you’re keeping track, that means teams that opened the NBA Finals on the road and went up 2-0 anyway are a perfect 3-0 in league history. But the prediction markets don’t quite see the Knicks as a sure thing just yet; traders give them a 77% chance to beat the Spurs overall, though that comes with a 31% chance of a sweep at home, as well as a 21% chance they finish things up at home again in Game 6 (if necessary).
One thing is for sure either way: the NYC games in this series are going to be an absolute spectacle.
President Trump — a noted New York sports fan — is set to attend tonight’s game amid a heightened amount of security, with a watch party outside the Garden scuttled at the request of the NYPD and Secret Service.
And the ticket price figures to get into the game have been astronomical. At times last week, the minimum cost to get in the door at MSG was around $10,000, and while those numbers have dropped since — sports business insider Darren Rovell thinks the get-in price before tip-off will end up being around $3,000 — the prices remain, in the words of Knicks swingman Josh Hart, “ridiculous.”
Assuming they can afford to see it, though, the championship dream is finally in reach for Knicks fans after 53 years of waiting.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
A Triple Crown “what if”
There was a familiar winner in Saturday’s 158th running of the Belmont Stakes — Golden Tempo — led by a familiar trainer: Cherie DeVaux, who last month became the first woman to train the Kentucky Derby-winning horse. With the pair of victories, Golden Tempo is the 49th horse since 1919 (when Sir Barton inaugurated the Triple Crown) to win two of its three legs, and the 13th to win the Derby and the Belmont specifically (but not the Preakness). What makes Golden Tempo, as well as last year’s Derby/Belmont winner, Sovereignty, unique is that neither chose to participate in the Preakness after winning the Derby — the only two times that ever happened for a horse that went on to win the Belmont, setting up the “what if” question of whether they should have tried to achieve immortality by running at Laurel Park as well.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Even without Judge, Yanks have MVP hopes” by Bryan Hoch
⚽ “The World Cup Won’t Boost the Economy (Don’t Let Anyone Tell You Otherwise)” by Jadrian Wooten
🏀 “I asked Jalen Brunson about pressure to better understand my own anxiety. Here’s what he said” by James L. Edwards III
⚽ “Grant Wahl Should Be Covering this World Cup” by Dr. Céline Gounder
🏀 “Surprise, Surprise: Congress Dropped The Ball on College Sports” by Seth Davis
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (6/9)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Golden Knights, Stanley Cup Final Game 4 (VEG leads 2-1)
⚾ MLB: Braves at White Sox
🏀 WNBA: Wings at Lynx
⚽ International Friendly: Argentina vs. Iceland
Wednesday (6/10)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at Knicks, NBA Finals Game 4
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Pirates
🏀 WNBA: Sun at Tempo
⚽ International Friendly: England vs. Costa Rica
Thursday (6/11)
⚽ World Cup begins! 🏆
⚽ World Cup: Mexico vs. South Africa
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Hurricanes, Stanley Cup Final Game 5
⚾ MLB: Mariners at Orioles
🏀 WNBA: Sky at Fever
⛳ Golf: RBC Canadian Open (TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, North Course - Caledon, ON)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.