Caitlin Clark Has the Formula to Get Even Better This WNBA Season

The history of other highly-drafted WNBA guards in Year 2 gives clues about where Clark might improve.

Caitlin Clark’s rookie season in 2024 was unlike anything the WNBA had ever seen before. Whether it was selling out practically every arena she set foot in, driving record-breaking TV ratings, or setting new league single-season records for assists and rookie marks for points and 3-pointers, Clark was an immediate supernova — a game-changing cultural phenomenon who moved the needle on and off the court.

And the really scary thing? She can get even better in 2025. It’s something that should be top of mind as the WNBA tips off its 29th season this evening and weekend, with Clark’s Indiana Fever debuting Saturday afternoon against the Chicago Sky — and longtime foil Angel Reese.

Going into Clark’s rookie year, we knew from past precedent that highly touted WNBA guards have a steeper learning curve than bigs, which helped explain why the advanced metrics were not as high on Clark as the eye test or hype machine early in her first season. But by the same token, she made rapid strides in the second half, leading the Fever to the playoffs and ending up among the most valuable players in the league according to my Estimated RAPTOR wins added metric.

Now the expectations are even loftier for Clark’s sophomore season in the pros. According to FanDuel, the Fever have the fourth-best odds of any team to win the WNBA title, after adding productive new players — like Sophie Cunningham and DeWanna Bonner — to suit up alongside holdovers like Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. But the lynchpin of everything is Clark’s ongoing development as a superstar — and the biggest variable in whether Indiana makes the leap from a .500 team to a championship contender.

Overall, history says Year 2 can be surprisingly tricky, even for star guards. Here’s a plot of every Top-3 WNBA draft pick who played guard, with the change in their Estimated RAPTOR from Year 1 to Year 2 of their pro careers: