Welcome to another big week in sports! As is often the case, the NFL takes center stage. On Sunday, the 2025-26 playoff bracket was finally set — but only after a wild finish in the nightcap saw the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens trade score after score in the fourth quarter, ending in Pittsburgh’s favor only when Ravens kicker Tyler Loop (one of the NFL’s most accurate kickers this year) missed a 44-yard field goal that would have won the game. Instead, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are in, along with 13 other teams, and we’ll go over all of their updated Super Bowl odds below. And if you can’t wait for Saturday and the wild-card kickoff, don’t worry. There are plenty of games from other leagues on the docket all week, including the resumption of the College Football Playoff on Thursday. Before we get there, though, here’s a look at what’s going on today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
NBA:
🏀 Knicks (57%) at Pistons (43%)* - 7 p.m.
🏀 Suns (26%) at Rockets (74%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Nuggets (17%) at Sixers (83%) - 8:30 p.m.
Hockey:
🏒 NHL: Mammoth (50%) at Rangers (50%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Red Wings (40%) at Senators (60%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏒 World Junior Championship: Sweden (55%) vs. Czechia (45%) - 8:30 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Wild (52%) at Kings (48%) - 10:30 p.m.
College Hoops:
🏀 USC (15%) at Michigan State (85%) - 8:30 p.m.
All listed times are Eastern.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Many contenders, no clear favorite
As the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, one big thing that stands out is just how deep the field of contenders is — without a true runaway favorite like we’ve seen in years past. According to the prediction markets, here are the odds for each playoff team to make a run this postseason:
At the top of the list, the Seattle Seahawks are certainly worthy favorites. They were, statistically, the best team in the league this season if we adjust their scoring margin for strength of schedule. But even they have only a 35% chance to make the Super Bowl, and less than a 20% chance to win it, because their path is shaping up to be so tough.
If the division rival LA Rams immediately take care of the Carolina Panthers, as expected — LA-Carolina, at 81-19, is the biggest probability mismatch in the wild-card round — and the rest of the first round goes according to chalk, Seattle would immediately have to face the Rams again in what might honestly be the de facto Super Bowl. (The teams ranked first and second in adjusted scoring margin this year.) If there are any upsets, the Seahawks would face either the 49ers or Packers right away. And that’s without even discussing a tough conference title game pipeline that could include the Bears or defending champion Eagles. There are no great paths for a favorite here.
Over in the AFC, it gets even more unclear. The Denver Broncos are favored by the prediction markets to emerge — but weakly so, at 26% to make the Super Bowl. (Don’t get too excited for a rematch of 2013-14’s Seattle/Denver championship!) Buffalo, New England, Houston, and Jacksonville each lurk below Denver with at least 14% Super Bowl odds themselves, and all were more statistically dominant during the regular season than the Broncos, who relied on a league-best 11-2 record in games decided by one score for the majority of their success. The markets are (rightly?) a bit skeptical about Denver’s potential with so many other viable counter-candidates to win the conference.
Two of those counter-candidates, though, are locked in a tight first-round battle — the Jaguars and Bills, who at 51-49 (in favor of JAX) are tied with Packers-Bears (51-49 Green Bay) for the closest matchups of wild-card weekend. That means two of those four teams, each of which have had real Super Bowl aspirations at different points this season, will be sent packing far earlier than they’d like, a reminder of the playoffs’ cruel numbers game.
That’s the defining tension of this NFL postseason: a field full of teams that look capable of winning it all, yet one where we — and the markets — still have little sense of who will be left standing at the end. All we know is that, in a postseason this crowded, even the strongest teams won’t have much margin for error.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Bubble-watchin’
The period immediately after New Year’s Day is a natural reset of sorts for the college basketball seasons (men’s and women’s). For one thing, conference play tends to begin in earnest — but there’s also enough in each team’s resume to begin tracking the dreaded bubble, where a team’s fate in or out of the NCAA tournament hangs in the balance. Analyst Bart Torvik has a great tool for this, in which he estimates each team’s chance to be selected for the tourney as an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference. As of Monday, here are his odds for men’s hoops teams that are sitting between a 20% and 80% bid probability:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “OUTLAWS, Part I: ‘We want you to remember when you played the Texans’” by Tyler Dunne
🏒 “The month of Macklin” by Brendan Farrell
🏈 “Big Shoes to Fill: 5 college RBs who are primed to step into massive roles in 2026” by VolumePigs
🏀 “The Evolution of Unethical Hoops” by Austin Cornilles
🏒 “Long-Suffering Sabres Fans Deserve This Current Streak, And Lots More” by Andrew Steele
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (1/6)
🏀 NBA: Heat at T-Wolves
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Lightning
🏒 NHL: Stars at Hurricanes
🏀 MBB: Duke at Louisville
🏀 MBB: Georgia at Florida
🏀 MBB: Texas Tech at Houston
Wednesday (1/7)
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Celtics
🏀 NBA: Clippers at Knicks
🏒 NHL: Stars at Capitals
⚽ EPL: Fulham vs. Chelsea
🏀 MBB: Alabama at Vanderbilt
🏀 WBB: Ohio State at Illinois
Thursday (1/8)
🏈 CFB: Miami vs. Ole Miss (College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)
🏀 NBA: Cavs at T-Wolves
⚽ EPL: Arsenal vs. Liverpool
🏒 NHL: Senators at Avalanche
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Jets
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Canadiens
🏀 WBB: Ole Miss at Oklahoma
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.