Are We Headed for a Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup Rematch?
With another one of Florida’s patented, blindsiding sweeps on the table — and Edmonton surging ahead of Dallas — we’re closing in on a rare NHL Finals repeat.
It’s a shorter (and free) post today, as we observe Memorial Day 🪖🌺 — but with the Panthers on the brink of sweeping the Hurricanes in the East final again tonight, plus the Oilers suddenly in control of the West, I had to write about the very real possibility of a Stanley Cup Final rematch in our near future.
Just a week ago, I noted how well-balanced the NHL’s Final Four was in terms of on-paper talent and betting odds. But that’s why they play the games… and it wouldn’t be playoff hockey without some kind of chaos changing what we thought we knew going into a series.
The big shock to the system? Just how much Florida has outclassed Carolina so far, outscoring them by a margin of 16 goals to 4 while taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the conference final. While some stretches of the series have been competitive — much of the first two periods of Game 1 was spent within a goal, and Game 3 was tied headed into a third frame that saw Florida break things open with five unanswered goals — the Panthers have 55 percent of the shots and 59 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Moreover, they are scoring on 44 percent of their power play chances against a Canes D that had the league’s best penalty kill during the regular season.
If Florida breaks out the brooms tonight, it would be the second time in three years that they unexpectedly (and unceremoniously) swept Carolina in the conference final, joining their matchup from 2023 that saw the Panthers unseat the Hurricanes despite the latter posting 21 more points during the regular season. This time around, it was only a 1-point gap — hence the virtual coin-flip odds going into the series — but we would not expect that to lead to a sweep. Yet, once again, the Panthers are all about weird sweeps:
The Florida Panthers Are All About The Weird Sweeps
One thing you can say about the Florida Panthers as a franchise: They’re never predictable.
On the other side, things haven’t been quite as lopsided, to be sure. But after Dallas erased an early 3-1 deficit with five third-period goals to win Game 1, they’ve been outscored 9-1 ever since — losing two straight to fall behind 2-1 in the battle for the West. Connor McDavid just had his first multi-goal game of the 2025 playoffs, snapping a stretch of zero goals in nine of his previous 10 games.
(You, uh, think him getting rolling as a scorer might be a problem for Dallas?)
There are reasons to think the Stars can fight back, not least of which is the fact that they still had 58 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 despite losing Games 2-3. Mikko Rantanen hasn’t scored yet — he has a pair of assists — and his production had been a key driver of Dallas’ ability to get this far in the playoffs. This one feels far less “over” than the series playing out over in the East.
Still, my Elo forecast says there’s a 68 percent chance we get a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and the Oilers, heading into Monday’s Cats-Canes Game 4:
There will be plenty of time to dissect the particulars of that matchup, and whether the Oilers could actually win it this time around, if and when it is actually solidified. But one thing to keep in mind is that repeat matchups for the Stanley Cup are surprisingly rare; only one — the Penguins and Red Wings in 2008 and 2009 — has happened in the past 41 (forty-one!) years, for instance.
Here’s a list of all 12 of the championship rematches in NHL history:
2008/09: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings
1983/84: Edmonton Oilers vs. New York Islanders
1977/78: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins
1968/69: Montreal Canadiens vs. St. Louis Blues
1963/64: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings
1959/60: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
1957/58: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins
1955/56: Montreal Canadiens vs. Detroit Red Wings
1954/55: Detroit Red Wings vs. Montreal Canadiens
1948/49: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings
1932/33: New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
1923/24: Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
At 95 percent to win the East for a third consecutive season — 65 percent to win in a sweep tonight — the Panthers are close to holding up their end of the bargain. Then it would just come down to whether McDavid and the Oilers can finish what they’ve started against a Dallas team that still has plenty of life (and talent) left in it.
So a decent amount still has to happen before we can officially say it’s going to be a rematch. But stay tuned, because if it does come together, we’ll be witnessing a rare occurrence in modern NHL history — and with it, either a second chance at glory for Edmonton… or the continuation of a burgeoning dynasty in Florida.
Filed under: NHL