538 Post: The Dodgers Are Still World Series Favorites — But They're The Weakest Favorite In Years

For FiveThirtyEight, I dug into the L.A. Dodgers’ surprisingly tenuous status as preseason World Series favorite in our forecast model. The Dodgers had the worst offseason of any team according to net Wins Above Replacement gained vs. lost, and they also have the most uncertainty of any team around their record in the statistical projection systems. With an 11% chance to win, they’re the weakest favorite in the FiveThirtyEight model since 2016, which could speak to a more wide-open MLB season overall.

The Dodgers Lead Our 2023 MLB Forecast — But They're The Weakest Favorite In Years