🏀2026 NCAA Tournament Forecast 📊
Track each Division I men's basketball team's odds to make (and, later, win) the 2025 NCAA basketball tourney.
In the spirit of BracketMatrix, the following page contains a composite of probabilities to advance through — and before that, make the field as a conditional at-large bid1 in — the 2025-26 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament. The current component team ratings (for the bracket odds) and/or forecast models (for the mid-season forecast) are from: ESPN Analytics (BPI), Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, TeamRankings, Sports-Reference/CBB, and a ✨ new addition ✨, the tourney forecast model from JThom Analytics.
🏀 2025-26 NCAA Tournament Odds and Probabilities 📊
How this works: Each source was compiled to create a meta-rating of point differential per 100 possessions relative to a D-I average team. Those ratings were used to create win probabilities for each NCAA tournament game based on a historical logistic regression, and the bracket was simulated 5,000 times to track the most likely winners.
🏀 2025-26 NCAA Tournament Model Consensus 📊
Filed under: College Basketball
Meaning, the odds of being selected as an at-large pick by the committee, conditional on not winning their conference tournament and securing an automatic bid.
You might consider throwing out the Team Rankings input, they seem way off.